Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence on the role of
yield spread in predicting inflation and output growth in Pakistan.
Ball and Croushore show that the SPF output forecasts are inefficient with respect to changes in monetary policy, as measured by changes in real interest rates, while Rudebusch and Williams show that the forecasts are inefficient with respect to the
yield spread. In this paper, the authors investigate the robustness of both claims of inefficiency, using real-time data and exploring the impact of alternative sample periods on the results.
For the fourth consecutive week, the two largest positive contributions over the past year were made by the Merrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Master II Index (Mlynch_HighYld_MasterII) and by the
yield spread between that same index and the 10-year U.S.
The
yield spread over US treasuries would be much larger if oil price continues to be at low levels, but if it increase to $50 per barrel level, yields spreads could be in the range of 200-250 bps over US Treasuries.
We use past values of the
yield spread and GDP growth to project what real GDP will be in the future.
The S&P closed the week at 1,967.90 while the
yield spread tightened slightly to 107 basis points.
We use a sample of 13,037
yield spread observations of industrial issuers from 1994 to 2005.
Pairwise cointegration tests are conducted by regressing each country's
yield spread versus Germany on a constant term [[beta].sub.0].
The
yield spread between this issue and a longer-term bond of Promsvyazbank (-/Ba2/BB-) PROMBK-19 has been in place only since June 26.
The economic fundamentals include the federal funds rate and interest rate spreads, such as the 1-year-1-month LIBOR spread and the 10-year nominal Treasury--10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
yield spread. These variables are intended to capture inflation expectations and uncertainty due to monetary policy.