A 1973 book by Burton Malkiel arguing that
security prices are completely unpredictable, especially in the short term. The book sets forth the idea that both
fundamental analysis and
technical analysis are wastes of time, as securities behave randomly. Thus, Malkiel holds that it is impossible to
outperform the
market by choosing the "correct" securities; it is only possible to outperform the market by taking on additional
risk. Malkiel cites the fact that many
actively managed mutual funds do not outperform the market over time, and in many cases revert to the
mean. Critics of this idea contend that empirical evidence shows that security prices do indeed follow particular
trends that can be predicted with a fair degree of accuracy. The title of the book gave birth to the term
random walk theory. See also:
Efficient markets theory.