technological forecasting

technological forecasting

the process of predicting the direction and scope of future technological advances. With rapid advances in science and technology shortening PRODUCT LIFE CYCLES and improving production techniques, firms need to forecast technological developments. Technological forecasting helps the firm to formulate its BUSINESS STRATEGY by identifying opportunities and threats presented by technical change, and assists in the planning of RESEARCH and DEVELOPMENT programmes by identifying new areas to explore. Technological forecasting can be done in several ways, by means of:
  1. methods which identify and extrapolate trends derived from historical data; for example, in plotting trends in data storage capacity and information processing speed over time, it is possible to identify the development of, first, valve-based computer technology, then transistor-based technology, present semiconductor (silicon chip)-based technology, and future fibre optics-based technology;
  2. methods based upon the subjective impressions of practising technologists. A single expert may write in some detail about the possible future of his own field of technology (‘scenario'writing), or a consensus of expert opinion may be sought, using the DELPHI approach where the experts first independently give opinions concerning the development of a scientific field, then distil these opinions to produce an overall view of likely advances. See BRAINSTORMING, NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE.
References in periodicals archive ?
The report covers a comprehensive study of major market drivers, restrains, opportunities, challenges, PESTEL, Porters, SWOT, and technological forecasting in the market.
The Role of Critical Success Factors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change 132: 18-25.
"Distributed, Decentralized, and Democratized Artificial Intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Percebe-se que o periodico "Technological Forecasting and Social Change", com 47 publicacoes e fator de impacto de 2,06, representa o principal periodico sobre prospeccao de tecnologias futuras tanto em relacao a quantidade de publicacoes, como em relacao ao fator de impacto (JCR).
(2015), "Online foresight platforms: evidence for their impact on scenario planning & strategic foresight", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.
Foresight research is published in numerous journals, with notable well-ranked journals that inform public administration research including Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, and Research Policy.
Gordon e Stoven (1976) foram os primeiros autores a terem um artigo de grande impacto, publicado no jornal Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
We had recently coauthored a paper, The Impact of Foresight on Entrepreneurship: the Wales 2010 Case Study, for the international journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
We had recently co-authored a paper "The Impact of Foresight on Entrepreneurship: the Wales 2010 Case Study" for the international journal "Technological Forecasting and Social Change".
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 113, Part A, 112-114.
Romano, "Market share dynamics using Lotka-Volterra models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.
Ausubel, "DRAMs as model organisms for study of technological evolution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.

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