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Related to probabilities: Conditional probabilities


The relative likelihood of a particular outcome among all possible outcomes.
Copyright © 2012, Campbell R. Harvey. All Rights Reserved.


the likelihood of a particular uncertain event occurring, measured on a scale from 0.0 (such an event is impossible) to 1.0 (such an event is certain to occur). People generally estimate probabilities on the basis of the relative frequency with which an event has occurred in the past, under given circumstances, and generalize from this past experience. In some circumstances it is easy to estimate the proportion of occasions on which an event occurs; for example, the probability of getting ‘heads’ when flipping a balanced coin is 0.5 because with such a coin in the long run we would get 50% ‘heads’ and 50% ‘tails’. In estimating probabilities in business situations, though, there may be no or only a few previous experiences that can be used to gauge the relative frequency of an event occurring. See also RISK AND UNCERTAINTY.
Collins Dictionary of Economics, 4th ed. © C. Pass, B. Lowes, L. Davies 2005
References in periodicals archive ?
Comparing cohort data to the pre-test probabilities of CAD outlined in NICE CG95, NICE have overestimated the number of patients likely to have CAD in the majority of groups.
Table 1 traces the survivors by age in a synthetic population from birth to age 100, based on the age-specific probabilities of dying of Victorian females in 2011-2013.
1995) provides probabilities of occurrence for snow depths equal to or exceeding various thresholds, using observations taken between 1961 and 1990 at several hundred cities across the continental United States.
prior probabilities and the relevant database size and that, as a legal
That is, AUC was calculated by summing the areas of the successive trapezoids created by the indifference points across the three different delays, and this calculation was done separately when the probabilities were 5%, 50%, and 95%.
The neutrosophic probability is a generalization of the classical probability because, when the chance of indeterminacy of a stochastic process is zero, these two probabilities coincide.
First, the probabilities of the measured voltage in the each quantized intervals (100 V) were calculated from the measured time-domain waveform in the pattern walking test, and then the discrete probability values for each voltage interval were normalized by the length of the voltage interval to get the discrete probability density points.
Ideally, everything that a person believes about a topic is quantitatively incorporated into the prior probabilities. For example, any concerns about misconduct or biased methodology in previous studies must be incorporated quantitatively into the prior probability values.
Our methodology is based on the estimation of probabilities on a gridded area of analysis concerning the cyclone passages and their association to recorded rain events.
The associated sample probabilities are then [p.sub.1], ..., [p.sub.n], where [p.sub.m] is the probability of a new sampled value [X.sub.n+1] being less than or equal to [X.sub.m].
Gambling venues, and sellers of systems that allegedly improve odds of winning, use incomplete facts and misinformation, and they are predators upon the general public ignorance of probabilities. If the probability of getting a winning lottery ticket is 1:4, it does not mean that every fourth ticket printed is a winner.
The prognosis for a serious disease might come with probabilities: You've got a 70% chance of full recovery, a 20% chance of recovery with some issues, and so forth.

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