Comparing the weighted probability based on the estimates for [eta] and [phi] against the objective probabilities
implies that the subject would overestimate the probabilities of the highest and lowest ranked outcomes, particularly the highest ranked outcome.
237) Likewise, people view activities they dislike as riskier than those they like even though the objective probabilities
of each occurring are the same.
As discussed, according to the principle of reduction to exchangeability, de Finetti considers interchangeable probabilities as subjective ones and binomial probabilities as objective probabilities
that should be eliminated.
Rather, one is referred to as a Bayesian if one believes that action should be based on "probability beliefs" when objective probabilities
are not known, and that one should update these beliefs according to Bayes Rule as evidence accumulates.
In relation to our chosen markets, the observations are prices corresponding to bookmaker odds and objective probabilities
derived from race results.
Unfortunately, not all strategies lend themselves to arriving at objective probabilities
The choice by the Agent that is rationally approvable by the Patient is to dump the chemical; but the morally appropriate choice for the Agent in light of the Patient's welfare, whether objective probabilities
or the Agent's own subjective probabilities are used to generate the moral ordering, is to refrain from dumping.
The option of reducing fear has many attractions, if it is possible: it reduces the hedonic cost of fear, closes the gap between subjective and objective probabilities
, and decreases the risk of mass panic.
This would cause the objective probabilities
associated with the confidence levels for the two discrimination responses to converge in the manner shown in Figure 9.
8 The difference between objective probabilities
and risk-neutral probabilities is important.
w] would give us objective probabilities
for certain physical event-types arising under very restricted conditions, period.
Even so, many commentators insist that the many minds view is not entitled to view these numbers as objective probabilities
(I shall take 'objective' as read from here on).