The composite New Hampshire index of state leading indicators
, which is produced jointly by e-forecasting.
Third, it is easier to see the time period between changes in the leading indicator
and the data point you want to forecast.
During the Bloomberg interview, its CEO highlighted several aspects which convince him and his team that their leading indicators
are correct in calling a recession.
are basically business measurements," says Donna Rhodes, a principal researcher for the Lean Aerospace Initiative (LAI) at MIT and co-head of the leading indicators
9 in June, suggesting the upturn began during the second and third quarters of the year, slightly earlier than the leading indicator
A leading indicator
can then be chosen to predict movements in this cyclical variable.
Various "rules of thumb" have been devised, for example, three months of consecutive declines in the leading indicator
composite, to alert one to an upcoming recession.
If a prime mover is itself influenced by economic activity, then it may not make a good leading indicator
Recently, we observed that a better leading indicator
could be obtained from data on recent "job losers on layoff,' rather than all workers on layoff.
eLEI is released the first business day of each month providing results of the previous month and historically forecasts one quarter ahead GDP more accurately than the Conference Board and OECD's leading indicators
Whether or not a specific measure is a leading indicator
of strategic performance depends on the role it plays in strategy.
However, the composite index of leading indicators
, the barometer for economic development, rose for the fifth month in a row, underscoring a solid upward trend, which may enable the business signal to turn into a yellow-blue light in February.