Is India headed for its worst growth recession
in a decade?
They will include a growth recession
in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on "safe" advanced-country government bonds.
Any significant growth recession
in China would hit the rest of Asia hard, along with commodity-exporting developing and emerging economies.
"The empirical record of policymakers' ability to engineer a growth recession
that nicely lands the economy at full employment without morphing into a full-blown recession is not comforting."
NWI: How has National Wiper Alliance been able to grow year on year despite supply issues, slower market growth recession
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Nevertheless, the numbers coming out of China are now considerably better than was so nine months ago when fears of a slip in growth to 5-6% caused fears of a growth recession
that would undermine the entire de-coupling story of Asian resilience.
But we believe that a "growth recession
," entailing sluggish growth and little progress in lowering unemployment, is more likely than outright falls in GDP.
It is feared that the economy with a GDP size of US$175 billion is likely to enter a growth recession
in the financial year 2011.
Figure 6 Montana Nonfarm Labor Income, Percent Growth, Actual and Predicted, 2002 Q1-2013 Q4 Average Growth '02-'07 3.3% Average Growth Recession
-1.2% Average Growth Recovery 2.4% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and BBER forecast Note: Table made from bar graph.
"It is highly unlikely, in my opinion, that Beijing will drive the economy into a growth recession
just to contain inflation," Stephen Jen, managing director of macroeconomics and currencies at Bluegold Capital Management, said in a note.
With the exception of India and Brazil, virtually all countries are experiencing either an outright recession or a growth recession
. The rapid deterioration in growth in China coupled with further contraction in industrial output in Japan have meant that the Asian 'tigers' have been unable to quarantine their economies from the financial crisis."
This is sometimes referred to as a "growth recession