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ARCH

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity

A statistical measure of the average error between a best fit line and actual data that uses past data to predict future performance. General Autoaggressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity is the most common way of doing this. See also: Fractal Distribution.
References in periodicals archive ?
She demonstrates her fallen archness by crafting a title that reminds everybody of "What's Eating Gilbert Grape?" and enlists her coyness and her simper in the service of book promotion to see if it really is possible to fool some of the people all of the time, and who--or all of the people some of the time, and for how long.
Her concentration on the minutiae of life averts sentimentality and the archness that can affect much poetry with a Christian worldview:
In 1790, 'spoken with infinite archness, humour and justness' (22) by the ten-year old Moore, Colman's Address concertinas London, nature's 'theatre, overflowing', (23) into Dublin's private theatre, along with the very grand public staging of regal composure to which it alludes.
The central roles in this creaky costume drama are so linked to Peter O'Toole and Katharine Hepburn that staging it now virtually compels newcomers to contest their legacy via vigorous chewing of scenery, and the casting of "Absolutely Fabulons" legend Joanna Lundey in the distaff role heightened expectations of knowing archness. But, as Trevor Nunn's production makes its stately pace across Stephen Brimson Lewis' lovingly realistic set, the realization dawns: This may not be a joke.
(Snarking refers to the generalised scepticism and critical savvy found on fan message boards that, despite all the archness and occasional venom on display, routinely betray deep emotional investment in the object of fan attention.) There was certainly little evidence of fan naivety about the realpolitik of the television and media sport marketplace.
Pixieish fun has always been part of McGegan's,approach, but Catherine Tbrocy's staging over-egged the pudding in the direction of archness: beyond the videos, the screen carried a series of Facebook page Tweets from "Dominique/ Medea"--a gag that would have worked a treat once.
Early in the novel, because Bingley is in love with Elizabeth's sister Jane, Darcy has the opportunity to observe her, and comes to respect Elizabeth's "mixture of sweetness and archness in her manner" so that, were it not for what he regards as the inferiority of her family connections, he thinks he would be in danger of falling for her.
Here, her prose loses its archness. Passages such as the following, with its tone of barely repressed grief, are shattering:
While her tone lacks the archness from which some situations or dialogues could benefit, she succeeds in making Wollie affable and credible, a protagonist readers can actively root for.
In the case of Autobiography, the naming gives artistic significance and credibility to a broken miscellany; however it's difficult for a reader not to read into the action something of the writer's archness as he draws a person's attention to a motley of insignificance that warrants such a conventionalised label.
That requires quite a workout, given the countless sentences which go astray in mid-course, mismatched subjects and verbs, belabored points, and an irritating archness of style.