Unbiased predictor

Unbiased predictor

A theory that spot prices at some future date will be equal to today's forward rates.

Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis

In foreign exchange, a theory that forward exchange rates for delivery at some future date are equal to the spot rates for that date. The hypothesis only functions in the absence of a risk premium. Critics contend that the unbiased expectations evidence shows that unbiased expectations do not occur in actual trading. It is also called an unbiased predictor.
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Provided the movement of teachers in and out of a grade has not changed the makeup of students enrolled in that grade, this finding supports the conclusion that measured value-added of teachers is an unbiased predictor of future test-score gains, as there appears to be no other explanation for the resulting improvement in test scores.
This paper uses cointegration techniques to test the hypothesis that the forward rate for the Greek drachma-US dollar exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate.
The Theoretical Price as an Unbiased Predictor of True Prices
Kohlhagen (1975) found that, in most cases, the forward is an unbiased predictor of the realized spot.
The earlier works tended to conclude that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate, albeit not an accurate one in the sense that it does not exhibit minimum forecast error.
Dubbed "mixed model equations (MMEs) that produce best linear unbiased predictors," the approach uses a disease-ranking system and matrix information to predict susceptibility of a plant species, based on how genetically similar it is to the targeted weed--Russian thistle, for example.
Corporate practitioner Galwey writes for senior undergraduates, postgraduate students and professionals, starting by explaining the need for more than one random-effect term when fitting a regression line or when designing an experiment, estimation of the variances of random-effect terms, interval estimates for fixed-effect terms in mixed models, best linear unbiased predictors in the estimation of random effects in mixed models, advanced mixed models for more elaborate data sets, the use of mixed models for the analysis of unbalanced experimental designed, going beyond mixed modeling and the reasons why the criterion for fitting mixed models is called the residual maximum likelihood.
In Chapter 4 there are SAS applications for estimation of genetic gain from single trait selection, indirect selection and index selection as well as selection based on best linear unbiased predictors.
An important question to ask of forecasts is whether they are unbiased predictors.
They further asserted that best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) from PROC MIXED would give, in this instance, environment-specific genotype trait predictors using information from the entire year-fertilizer combinations.
The pure expectations theory of the term structure exposited by Fisher (1896), and refined by Lutz (1940) and Meiselman (1962), views forward rates as unbiased predictors of future short-term interest rates.
He points out that this result contradicts the rational expectations result that forward exchange rates should be unbiased predictors of future spot exchange rates.