Subjective probabilities


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Subjective probabilities

Probabilities that are determined subjectively (for example, on the basis of judgment rather than statistical sampling).

Subjective Probabilities

One's personal judgment about the outcome of a particular investment. At its most extreme, relying on subjective probabilities represents the exact opposite of a formula plan, which seeks to eliminate all personal judgments and biases from investing. By definition, one cannot calculate subjective probabilities because they are based ultimately on one's feeling. Most investors rely on a combination of subjective probabilities and more objective calculations when making investment decisions.
References in periodicals archive ?
Objective information about individuals known and used or known and not used by insurers and information privately held by individuals affect objective and subjective probabilities about having an accident next year.
Uncertain and subjective probabilities can be granulated in different terms like: improbable or doubtful, but we will draw our attention to special form of probability granulation, focusing on point value with inherent uncertainty: around 30%, around 75%, etc.
An entrepreneur thinking of launching a new product does not calculate subjective probabilities and then maximize expected utility.
The approach is a way of emphasizing the relationship between useful subjective probabilities and experimental probabilities.
(41) The most popular candidate for rigorously evaluating and combining related evidence is the Bayesian approach, utilizing subjective probabilities.
Note that Good is saying merely that all probabilities can be interpreted as subjective probabilities, not that all probabilities must be interpreted as subjective probabilities.
As discussed in the previous section, from a subjetivist interpretation, this result justifies the reasons that lead to associate -inteasubjectively- the probability of certain events to the frequency observed in similar events, replacing the unknown objective probabilities and the concept of independence by subjective probabilities and exchangeability (23).
If investors set a club's stock price prior to a game, [V.sub.0], as the weighted average of postgame values, with weights equal to their subjective probabilities of game outcomes, [prob.sup.subj.sub.win], [prob.sup.subj.sub.draw], and [prob.sup.subj.sub.loss], then [V.sub.0] can be expressed as
in Teacher Preparation (Frederic Gourdeau) [Presented in both French and English]; (11) On the Origins of Dynamic Number in the Breakdown of Structural, Metaphoric, and Historic Conceptions of Human Mathematics (Nicholas Jackiw and Nathalie Sinclair); (12) Analysis of Resources Mobilized by a Teacher and Researcher in Designing/Experimenting/Reflecting Upon Modelling Sequences Based on Elementary Combinatorics and Aimed at Introducing 7th Graders to Modelling (Souleymane Barry); (13) Being (Almost) a Mathematician: Teacher Identity Formation in Post-Secondary Mathematics (Mary Beisiegel); (14) Subjective Probabilities Derived from the Perceived Randomness of Sequences of Outcomes (Egan J.
Referring to mistakes such as the assessment about Himalayan glaciers, the review noted that such recommendations that involved subjective probabilities should be based on the principle of " high agreement, much evidence." " Scientific uncertainty is best communicated by indicating the nature, amount, and quality of studies on a particular topic, as well as the level of agreement among studies," it said.
More specifically, the subjective probabilities inherent in odds and associated with particular information features (for example, a horse's PP) can be compared with the objective probability of success (as revealed, ex post, by race outcomes).

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