Subjective probabilities


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Subjective probabilities

Probabilities that are determined subjectively (for example, on the basis of judgment rather than statistical sampling).

Subjective Probabilities

One's personal judgment about the outcome of a particular investment. At its most extreme, relying on subjective probabilities represents the exact opposite of a formula plan, which seeks to eliminate all personal judgments and biases from investing. By definition, one cannot calculate subjective probabilities because they are based ultimately on one's feeling. Most investors rely on a combination of subjective probabilities and more objective calculations when making investment decisions.
References in periodicals archive ?
The subjective probabilities elicited from respondents are used to fit a respondent-specific parametric distribution following the procedure described in Manski (2004).
There are many different conceptions of probability, but two are most relevant here: objective or frequentist versus subjective probabilities.
41) The most popular candidate for rigorously evaluating and combining related evidence is the Bayesian approach, utilizing subjective probabilities.
To estimate the choice model, subjective probabilities have to be elicited for the occurrence of outcomes for each major in the respondent's choice set (i.
Note that Good is saying merely that all probabilities can be interpreted as subjective probabilities, not that all probabilities must be interpreted as subjective probabilities.
These estimates of subjective probabilities differ systematically from the in-sample distribution of game outcomes.
More specifically, the subjective probabilities inherent in odds and associated with particular information features (for example, a horse's PP) can be compared with the objective probability of success (as revealed, ex post, by race outcomes).
Chapters address school vouchers and student achievement, organizations and trade, the importance of history for economic development, the experimental approach to development economics, the economic consequences of the international migration of labor, detecting race bias using statistical evidence, power laws in economics and finance, housing supply, quantitative macroeconomics with heterogenous households, learning and equilibrium, learning and macroeconomics, sufficient statistics for welfare analysis, networks and economic behavior, subjective probabilities in household surveys, and other topics.
UTILITY FUNCTION IN TERMS OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES
Since the probability of green/blue is not known, traders have to form subjective probabilities.
The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival.
They evaluate the Survey of Professional Forecasters' (SPF) joint subjective probabilities for the onset of a recession during the next two quarters, utilizing techniques developed in other disciplines.

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