Subjective probabilities

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Subjective probabilities

Probabilities that are determined subjectively (for example, on the basis of judgment rather than statistical sampling).
Copyright © 2012, Campbell R. Harvey. All Rights Reserved.

Subjective Probabilities

One's personal judgment about the outcome of a particular investment. At its most extreme, relying on subjective probabilities represents the exact opposite of a formula plan, which seeks to eliminate all personal judgments and biases from investing. By definition, one cannot calculate subjective probabilities because they are based ultimately on one's feeling. Most investors rely on a combination of subjective probabilities and more objective calculations when making investment decisions.
Farlex Financial Dictionary. © 2012 Farlex, Inc. All Rights Reserved
References in periodicals archive ?
Pure insight may win its battles with superstitious faith, but its view of human activity as purely subjective risks lapsing into skepticism.
It is clear that subjective risks lie considerably below those estimated by scientists.
Smokers thus appear to use the information given to them in the brochure and process their own subjective risks in a manner consistent with that information.
Taken together, the model results and simple mean comparisons imply that subjects perceive their subjective risks to be lower than the experts' assessments of those risks, but they have a reasonably accurate view of the compounding effects of smoking on health risks.
The method also enables the elimination of subjective risks in traffic and is based on the analysis of participants' attitudes to traffic, which is of extreme importance because one of the main objectives of traffic safety management is to create the feeling of safety and security among participants in traffic.
Apart from objective risk, the subjective risk of danger in traffic is eliminated, and thus pedestrians get the feeling of safety and security, which is also the objective of traffic safety improvement.
(2004) carried out a statistical analysis of traffic accidents and examined subjective participants' attitudes to traffic regarding risks so that to identify the cases of full overlapping, partial overlapping and a complete divergence of objective and subjective risk highlighting it was necessary to eliminate all risks due to the fact that by removing objective risk danger spots were actually eliminated and by removing subjective risk future danger spots were taken out.
The complexities of dioxins arise from multiple levels of risk pertaining to omnipresence of dioxin sources, accumulating in ecosystems and traveling through food-chains, short-term and long-term inconclusive health and ecological effects, scientific uncertainties, inconsistent subjective risks and differing perceptions.
It may be meaningful to conduct in-depth research on the cultural worldview of the Korean society, which leads society to multi-way risk communication, interconnecting between top-down and bottom-up processes, with the dynamics of interactions among subjective risk perceptions of multiple risk actors.
Updating subjective risks in the presence of conflicting information: An application to climate change.
ID Models of Subjective Risk for Certain Respondents: Dependent Variable Is the Stated Risk in Terms of Lifetime Annual Probability of Death, N = 229 [partial derivative] med [pi]/ [partial Variable Parameter SE p-value (a) derivative]x CONSTANT -2.7671 0.0926 0.0000 1.21E-02 FEMALE 0.0154 0.0044 0.0005 7.30E-05 DISTANCE -0.0120 0.0047 0.0218 5.69E-05 EDUCATION -0.0569 0.0248 0.0107 2.70E-04 < 1 MILE -0.2112 0.0865 0.0146 1.00E-03 Expected mean deaths/100,000 142.68 log-likelihood -339.61 (a) p-values for a two-tail test of the null hypothesis [H.sub.o]: [beta] = 0 vs.
Estimates of subjective risk are necessary for modeling preferences when outcomes are uncertain.

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