Subjective probabilities

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Subjective probabilities

Probabilities that are determined subjectively (for example, on the basis of judgment rather than statistical sampling).

Subjective Probabilities

One's personal judgment about the outcome of a particular investment. At its most extreme, relying on subjective probabilities represents the exact opposite of a formula plan, which seeks to eliminate all personal judgments and biases from investing. By definition, one cannot calculate subjective probabilities because they are based ultimately on one's feeling. Most investors rely on a combination of subjective probabilities and more objective calculations when making investment decisions.
References in periodicals archive ?
Thus, the perceived risk, or subjective risk, is a reflection of the real risk, especially when risks are well-known (Sjoberg, Moen, & Rundmo, 2004).
I used my standard, subjective risk management test: Was the hazard detectable by the pilot and could he/she have assessed the risk and mitigated it to a lower level of likelihood or severity, perhaps avoiding the accident altogether?
We can set subjective risk scales for evaluation purposes and do so routinely, using High, Medium, and Low--or a more finally grained alternative.
Updating subjective risk in the presence of conflicting information'.
By contrast, an action carries a subjective risk of a harm from your point of view just in case on the basis of your evidence you ought to assign some credence to the proposition that the action leads to this harm.
Instead, cooperative financial institutions should determine economic capital needs instead, which is based upon both quantifiable and subjective risk analysis.
Build a risk management process around a "risk scorecard" based on harder, less subjective risk indicators, such as customer retention or inventory.
The propensity for some subjects to report a range suggests a degree of uncertainty about subjective risk even after they have seen the information brochure and the risk ladder.
Apart from objective risk, the subjective risk of danger in traffic is eliminated, and thus pedestrians get the feeling of safety and security, which is also the objective of traffic safety improvement.
A small but growing number of companies are conducting independent third-party audits of their compliance programs or subjective risk factors.
Risk Managenable[R] spreadsheet software solutions integrate some innovative tools to manage the reliability of subjective risk and control assessments.

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