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Faster price growth this year has proven more widespread than food and fuel, with core CPI also on the rise; there might yet be some more structural inflation at work and ahead of the May 2019 midterm elections
The New Zealand Structural Inflation Model, NZSIM, is the latest iteration in the Reserve Bank's structural macroeconomic modelling.
The current low inflation environment could be sustained over the medium term as underlying structural inflation dynamics are favorable with the improved ability of the domestic economy to accommodate supply shocks, the BSP added in a statement last week.
The lower growth environment is partly behind the rise in structural inflation, due to the lack of infrastructure development.
In fact, even in good times market participants factor in the risk of higher import costs, leading to structural inflation.
These countries will, in general, be exposed to structural inflation, that is, inflation originating in differing performance of their various sectors and anchored on the real side of the economy.
India has a large current account as well as large fiscal deficit and the room for flexibility is curtailed by their high structural inflation. India is probably most at risk of higher inflation as well as rising oil prices.
Structural inflation problems continue to worsen and will threaten growth in the medium-term.
Almunia also notes that member states are being affected by the shocks that have hit the eurozone in diverse ways, which calls for the "broadening of macroeconomic surveillance and coordination" in order that appropriate measures may be taken in terms of "competitiveness, external imbalances, structural inflation and labour costs".
Theories of structural inflation, like their cousins in the employment department, once confined to the developing countries, especially Latin America, are now applied to industrialised economies.
Both roles are essentially passive, entailing some Friedman type of money growth target in medium run (some interval that will take into account a likely real growth and structural inflation) combined with a short-term fluctuation to maintain a crawling-peg regime compatible with a stable real exchange rate.
A structural inflation model similar to one employed by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (described in Throop, 1988) was utilized to derive relatively sophisticated forecasts of inflation.
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