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The first significant departure from the simple linear trend model described by equation 2 is that log GDP can be additively decomposed into a trend component [[tau].sub.t] and a cyclical component [c.sub.t] as follows:
Developments in the field of econometrics during the 1980s called into question the usefulness of the simple linear trend model for policy analysis.
For this reason, the fitting of a simple linear trend model would not be adequate, and the analysis demands the greater flexibility offered by the GAM approach.
The first is the simple linear trend model, in which s(t) = [gamma]t for a single parameter [gamma] to be estimated.