Secular market

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Secular Market

A market as defined by its overarching, long-term trends. Generally, a secular market refers to trends over a period of five or more years. A secular market may be bullish or bearish, and, in market analysis, takes precedence over opposite, short-term trends that happen within the secular market. For example, the Great Depression in the United States lasted from 1929 until World War II (certainly a bearish secular market). Even though some years saw significant GDP growth (including 14.2% growth in 1936), this did not prevent the secular market from being bearish. Thus, a secular market describes general trends in the market without regard for anomalous trends in the interim. See also: Cyclical market.

Secular market.

A secular market is one that moves in the same direction -- up or down -- for an extended period.

Benchmark indexes continue to rise to new, higher levels during a secular bull market despite some short-term corrections. Similarly, during a secular bear market, index levels decline or remain flat despite short-term rallies.

In addition, the average price-to-earnings ratio increases substantially during a secular bull market before reaching a top and falls during secular bear markets before hitting a bottom.

Secular markets tend to move in cycles, or predictable though not regular patterns, so that a secular bull market is followed by a secular bear market, which is followed by a secular bull market, and so on.

For example, the bull market of 1982 through 1999 followed the bear market of 1966-1981. The length of secular markets varies, from as few as 4 or 5 years to more than 20 years, though when one begins and ends becomes clear only in retrospect.

References in periodicals archive ?
Odyssey makes majority controlled investments in industries with a long-term positive outlook and favorable secular trends.
The project will delineate secular trends (2005-2015) in the health of older people by completing a third prevalence wave survey in catchment areas previously surveyed in 2004-2006 and 2007-2009.
This book is unique in that it counters secular trends in the discipline.
Today we celebrate the upward secular trends that many seem to think will continue, but trends are only trends until they're not.
There is a global travel revolution underway, and the secular trends of rising wealth, rapid urbanisation and increasing digital interconnectivity make us as confident as ever about demand for high-end travel," Frits van Psschen, president and CEO of Starwood, said in a statement.
Twenty-four contributions from the 71st Nestle Nutrition Institute Workshop (October 2011; Vienna, Austria) are arranged in sections corresponding to the sessions: drivers of growth, secular trends in growth, and healthy growth.
Growth in emerging markets is becoming ever more intertwined, with multi-decade secular trends offering enormous opportunities for those with foresight.
In their report entitled Feeding the World: The Economics of Food, Fidelity Investments concludes that meeting the requirements of a growing population is a major challenge and that by investing in 'companies that allow us to grow or create more food, investors should be able to take advantage of these secular trends.
However, moderate Islamists, liberals and secular trends were in favour of retaining the wording of the l971 constitution which underlines the 'principles' of Islamic Sharia as the major source.
In regression modeling that controlled for secular trends and other confounders, the increased insurance rates had a positive but nonsignificant effect on ED visits among those under age 65 (P = .