Secular market

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Secular Market

A market as defined by its overarching, long-term trends. Generally, a secular market refers to trends over a period of five or more years. A secular market may be bullish or bearish, and, in market analysis, takes precedence over opposite, short-term trends that happen within the secular market. For example, the Great Depression in the United States lasted from 1929 until World War II (certainly a bearish secular market). Even though some years saw significant GDP growth (including 14.2% growth in 1936), this did not prevent the secular market from being bearish. Thus, a secular market describes general trends in the market without regard for anomalous trends in the interim. See also: Cyclical market.

Secular market.

A secular market is one that moves in the same direction -- up or down -- for an extended period.

Benchmark indexes continue to rise to new, higher levels during a secular bull market despite some short-term corrections. Similarly, during a secular bear market, index levels decline or remain flat despite short-term rallies.

In addition, the average price-to-earnings ratio increases substantially during a secular bull market before reaching a top and falls during secular bear markets before hitting a bottom.

Secular markets tend to move in cycles, or predictable though not regular patterns, so that a secular bull market is followed by a secular bear market, which is followed by a secular bull market, and so on.

For example, the bull market of 1982 through 1999 followed the bear market of 1966-1981. The length of secular markets varies, from as few as 4 or 5 years to more than 20 years, though when one begins and ends becomes clear only in retrospect.

References in periodicals archive ?
SECULAR TRENDS JUSTIFY HIGHER PRICE: Yesterday, Macquarie analyst Tim Nollen had increased his price target for Netflix to $330 from $275, while reiterating an Outperform rating on the shares.
We are committed to delivering superior returns for investors and this growth capital is consistent with our goal of investing in sectors that benefit from secular trends, in Energia's case the domestic electricity supply and demand imbalance in the Kingdom.
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Each chapter characterizes the significance of the risk factor or disease, the underlying biological and physiological processes, high-risk groups, geographic distribution, secular trends, causes, and evidence-based interventions for prevention and control.
This milieu of factors may be accounting for secular trends observed in this population.
Founded in 2013 by Gary Garrabrant and Thomas McDonald, Jaguar invests in and develops scalable real estate-related operating platforms and companies poised to grow in markets characterized by an expanding middle class, aspirational youth, urbanization and other secular trends found in emerging global economies.
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This book is unique in that it counters secular trends in the discipline.
Depending on their socio-economic, bio-cultural status [29-31], and impact of war [32], population groups throughout the world have shown different secular trends in stature over the past century [29-32].
Secular trends mean that volumes are growing in most lines and sub-sectors.
Today we celebrate the upward secular trends that many seem to think will continue, but trends are only trends until they're not.