painted a slightly bullish picture with one-month gauges creeping higher in overnight trading.
Odd tight-strike risk reversals
trading in tickers starting with letter A.
in the foreign exchange option market do not really indicate any real demand for loonie weakness protection.
Sterling risk reversals
fell to the lowest in 17 months, evidence of investors rushing to protect themselves against more downside between now and into 2019 by buying "put" options.
This paper investigates whether risk reversals
(RR)--a measure of the skewness of exchange rate expected distribution--contain information about future returns of emerging market currencies.
One-month risk reversals
-- a measure of relative demand for options on a currency rising or falling -- showed an increased bias for euro puts, or bets the currency will weaken.
USDXAU 3mth 25 delta risk reversals
have broken out to the downside of three-year lows and the relationship between inflation-adjusted US government bond yields and the price of gold also appears to be broken.
- Charts, the graphical illustration of Risk Reversals
and Implied vs.
Aussie one-month 25 delta risk reversals
-- seen by many as a barometer for short term fear -- were once again showing an extreme bias for puts, sitting at 4.4/5.4 percent, up from around 3.50 percent on June 3.
What are Risk Reversals
: Risk reversals
are the difference in volatility between similar (in expiration and relative strike levels) FX calls and put options.
Interestingly EUR-USD risk reversals
have now inverted in favor of EUR puts instead of EUR calls out to 6-months (page 12), this may reflect hedging of either outright long EUR or short vega positions via the accumulation of EUR puts.
The most popular option combinations traded on the market are straddles, risk reversals
, and strangles.