02 per cent, while the average growth rate of real GNP
Using HP-filtered real GNP
the same measures are constructed, except that the discrete observations dictate defining expansions in terms of the number of periods above trend and recessions as the number of periods below trend.
Using finite-sample critical values, they rejected the unit root null in favor of the two-break alternative for five series (real GNP
, nominal GNP, per capita real GNP
, industrial production, and employment) at a 5% significance level.
Figure 10 plots the contributions to the change in real GNP
per capita made by nine factors.
In each case for real GNP
(or GDP) and GNP (or GDP) Deflator, BVAR estimates are made of eight future logarithmic first differences.
The disparity in real GNP
growth projections among the early 1981 forecasts grew for the "out years," 1983 and 1984.
Logically, if an increase in real GNP
implies an increase in physical volume, no increase in physical volume implies no increase in real GNP
, which was the point of Assertion 3.
878 3/70-6/92 change in Real GNP
Production Quarterly percent 0.
Such a possibility may be investigated within a trivariate framework including other important variables (for example, the unemployment rate) which represent considerable determinants of budget deficits and real GNP
t] measures the level of real economic activity, for example real GNP
or the level of employment; [u.
The four variables are real GNP
growth (Y), the rate of inflation as measured by the GNP deflator (P), the unemployment rate (U), and the 90-day Treasury bill rate (R).
For the 10-year period (1980-1990) the real GNP
per capita averaged 1.