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The relative likelihood of a particular outcome among all possible outcomes.
Copyright © 2012, Campbell R. Harvey. All Rights Reserved.


the likelihood of a particular uncertain event occurring, measured on a scale from 0.0 (such an event is impossible) to 1.0 (such an event is certain to occur). People generally estimate probabilities on the basis of the relative frequency with which an event has occurred in the past, under given circumstances, and generalize from this past experience. In some circumstances it is easy to estimate the proportion of occasions on which an event occurs; for example, the probability of getting ‘heads’ when flipping a balanced coin is 0.5 because with such a coin in the long run we would get 50% ‘heads’ and 50% ‘tails’. In estimating probabilities in business situations, though, there may be no or only a few previous experiences that can be used to gauge the relative frequency of an event occurring. See also RISK AND UNCERTAINTY.
Collins Dictionary of Economics, 4th ed. © C. Pass, B. Lowes, L. Davies 2005
References in periodicals archive ?
We chose the top 5% as the small probability. A format effect occurred in Study 1b, which means that the affect heuristic can evoke a format effect at the level of 5% probability.
Further, multiuser interference is serious due to more high density in nodes, which leads to high outage probability. At present for more interference of multiusers few powers control algorithm is considered.
Similarly, the failure mode of shear or tensile failure in the key strata is likely to occur in the case of [h.sub.k] [not equal to] 0, and the failure probability of the failure mode is also a conditional probability. The failure probability is shown below.
The probabilities of failures of the motor-pump respectively mechanical, electrical and hydraulic knowing that there is a malfunction in the motor-pump equal to 99.4, 98.3 and 83%; these allow us to update the beliefs to priori probability.
In addition, for the various combinations of typical cases, the higher the water level in a reservoir, the greater the probability of the Changheba reservoir dam overtopping and the greater the joint probability. The joint probabilities of the two reservoirs collapsing under the combined action of flood and landslide surge shown in Table 10 are very small (of the order of [10.sup.-15]).
It is always possible to allocate a subjective probability. Sometimes allocating an experimental probability is not possible or very difficult or expensive.
Each cell is colour coded to correspond with the ESC estimated pre-test probability. Dark red cells represent >85% probability, pale pink cells represent 66-85% probability, pale blue cells represent 15-65% probability and white cells represent <15% probability.
He continued: "Assuming first Cardiff win all three remaining games under this condition, Cardiff can overtake Sheffield with probability of approximately 0.75 x 0.7 = 0.525, which is quite a good probability.
Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts in probability. Concepts such as complementary events and conditional probability become easy to understand when presented in the context of a life table.
His main discipline interest in mathematics is statistics and probability. In the pages of "Probability for Kids: Using Model-Eliciting Activities to Investigate Probability Concepts", Professor Chamberlin draws upon his many years of experience and expertise to feature real-world probability scenarios for students in grades 4-6.
Others (e.g., Green and Myerson 1996) have suggested that delay discounting can be interpreted as a function of probability. If an outcome is delayed, then the probability that the outcome will ultimately be obtained is not certain, either because conditions related to the outcome change during the interim or because the recipient may not be in a position to receive the outcome at the later time (e.g., is deceased).

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