probability

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Probability

The relative likelihood of a particular outcome among all possible outcomes.

probability

the likelihood of a particular uncertain event occurring, measured on a scale from 0.0 (such an event is impossible) to 1.0 (such an event is certain to occur). People generally estimate probabilities on the basis of the relative frequency with which an event has occurred in the past, under given circumstances, and generalize from this past experience. In some circumstances it is easy to estimate the proportion of occasions on which an event occurs; for example, the probability of getting ‘heads’ when flipping a balanced coin is 0.5 because with such a coin in the long run we would get 50% ‘heads’ and 50% ‘tails’. In estimating probabilities in business situations, though, there may be no or only a few previous experiences that can be used to gauge the relative frequency of an event occurring. See also RISK AND UNCERTAINTY.
References in periodicals archive ?
Furthermore, it applies not only to the standard probability calculus, but also to nonstandard models.
But this conflicts with the Bayesian principle that a rational agent's degrees of belief must conform to the probability calculus.
This limiting case of PoI does not act as a constraint on existing subjective probability assignments, but rather as a rational way of filling in the gaps that aren't filled by the probability calculus itself.
But he correctly points out that even if the laws of logic were constitutive of what it is to believe, the rules of the probability calculus are not, and therefore it is clearly possible to have beliefs which are irrational (to assign a greater probability to a conjunction than to one of its conjuncts, for example).
If Shapiro is right, these intellectuals may have embraced a basic premise of a twentieth-century theory of uncertainty, the standard probability calculus.
IC-Expert combines financial mathematics and probability calculus to create an "expert-trading assistant" that helps investors build stock portfolios, based on their risk tolerance, and then manage them.
This question is addressed here, drawing lessons from an instructive series of attempts to reconstruct within the probability calculus the classical problem of independent witnesses who corroborate each other's testimony.
Bayesianism--as a normative epistemological theory holds that rational belief comes in precisely measurable degrees, which satisfy the probability calculus and are modified by conditionalizing on acquired evidence.
As I become more confident about Galileo's laws, I must - on pain of violating the probability calculus - become more confident about Kepler's laws - given Newtonian theory as a bridge' (Laudan [1995], p.
Qualified Reflection follows from the probability calculus together with a few idealizing assumptions.