probability

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Probability

The relative likelihood of a particular outcome among all possible outcomes.

probability

the likelihood of a particular uncertain event occurring, measured on a scale from 0.0 (such an event is impossible) to 1.0 (such an event is certain to occur). People generally estimate probabilities on the basis of the relative frequency with which an event has occurred in the past, under given circumstances, and generalize from this past experience. In some circumstances it is easy to estimate the proportion of occasions on which an event occurs; for example, the probability of getting ‘heads’ when flipping a balanced coin is 0.5 because with such a coin in the long run we would get 50% ‘heads’ and 50% ‘tails’. In estimating probabilities in business situations, though, there may be no or only a few previous experiences that can be used to gauge the relative frequency of an event occurring. See also RISK AND UNCERTAINTY.
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Furthermore, it applies not only to the standard probability calculus, but also to nonstandard models.
Death of paradox: the killer logic beneath the standards of proof
But this conflicts with the Bayesian principle that a rational agent's degrees of belief must conform to the probability calculus.
Epistemic justification and deductive closure
This limiting case of PoI does not act as a constraint on existing subjective probability assignments, but rather as a rational way of filling in the gaps that aren't filled by the probability calculus itself.
A consistent restriction of the Principle of Indifference
But he correctly points out that even if the laws of logic were constitutive of what it is to believe, the rules of the probability calculus are not, and therefore it is clearly possible to have beliefs which are irrational (to assign a greater probability to a conjunction than to one of its conjuncts, for example).
Without Good Reason: The Rationality Debate in Philosophy and Cognitive Science
If Shapiro is right, these intellectuals may have embraced a basic premise of a twentieth-century theory of uncertainty, the standard probability calculus.
"Beyond Reasonable Doubt" and "Probable Cause": Historical Perspectives on the Anglo-American Law of Evidence
IC-Expert combines financial mathematics and probability calculus to create an "expert-trading assistant" that helps investors build stock portfolios, based on their risk tolerance, and then manage them.
Internet Invest's New Software ''Trading Assistant'' Relies on Advanced Technical Analysis to Improve Stock Trading
This question is addressed here, drawing lessons from an instructive series of attempts to reconstruct within the probability calculus the classical problem of independent witnesses who corroborate each other's testimony.
Philosophy and Phenomenological Research: March 2011, Vol. 82, No. 2
Bayesianism--as a normative epistemological theory holds that rational belief comes in precisely measurable degrees, which satisfy the probability calculus and are modified by conditionalizing on acquired evidence.
Decision Theory as Philosophy
As I become more confident about Galileo's laws, I must - on pain of violating the probability calculus - become more confident about Kepler's laws - given Newtonian theory as a bridge' (Laudan [1995], p.
Laudan and Leplin on empirical equivalence
Qualified Reflection follows from the probability calculus together with a few idealizing assumptions.
Philosophical Review: Vol. 118, No. 1, January 2009

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