investors will be watching the earnings reports, Philadelphia Fed Survey
, initial and continuing jobless claims data, the leading economic indicators index, and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report.
First we look at three measures of short-term inflation expectations--the median expectation from the monthly University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (UM Survey) and the median CPI and core CPI expectations from the quarterly Philadelphia Fed Survey
of Professional Forecasters (SPF).
In the US, the Philadelphia Fed survey
tomorrow, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey on Friday, will be watched closely for an indication as to when the Fed's tapering of asset purchases is likely to begin.
The July Philadelphia Fed survey
of manufacturers is due on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Fed survey
for June showed that business sentiment for the US economy has worsened (16.6 vs the forecasted 0.5).
In addition, data is due on leading economic indicators for June and the Philadelphia Fed survey
of manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Investors' expectations have illustrated neatly the volatility that we've been taking account of in our current asset allocation stance, driven by a run of data that suggested first that a "double dip" was less likely (encouraging US industrial production in July) and then that it was more likely (disappointing weekly US unemployment claims and a weak US Philadelphia Fed survey
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed survey
reports were disappointing as well.
economy after the dollar's fall following the very weak Philadelphia Fed survey
last week,'' Tanaka said.
We also find that the Richmond Manufacturing Survey--alone and when used in conjunction with the Philadelphia Fed Survey
of Business Conditions--is highly correlated with the ISM.
In a study of the Philadelphia Fed survey
, Trebing found that the month-over-month employment index was positively correlated with month-over-month growth in manufacturing employment in the Third Federal Reserve District.
The early economic data, which included the jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed survey
, were both better than expected, providing an additional tailwind at the open.