Michael Reynolds, investment strategy officer at Glenmede Trust Company believes persistently low inflation in developed economies "should constrain nominal yields
, and tariffs are more likely to weigh on prices via demand destruction."
A further escalation of trade tensions has resulted in a considerable drop in US nominal yields
, a drop in US real yields, increased Fed rate cut expectations and a weaker US dollar."
on the longer-end have had difficulties recently breaking out to new highs.
Third, term structure models assume stationarity for nominal yields
. Decomposing long-term yields into expectations of the future short-term rate and term premiums is one core question in the term structure literature (Duffee 2002; Wright 2011; Creal and Wu 2016).
But for now the spike in nominal yields
has created an unfavourable environment.
Even nontraditional investors, such as foreigners who can't benefit from the tax-exempt status of most munis, are attracted to the muni market because of relatively high nominal yields
compared to those of overseas, said Thomas Casey, senior portfolio manager, Tax-Sensitive Strategies at Standish Mellon Asset Management.
However, I only use 12-, 24-, 36-,..., 108- and 120-month nominal yields
([N.sup.N] = 9) and 24-, 36-, 48-,..., 108- and 120-month TIPS yields ([N.sup.R] = 8) for the estimation.
Indeed, about $6 trillion worth of government bonds around the world today have negative nominal yields
. The next stage of unconventional unconventional monetary policy - if the risks of recession, deflation and financial crisis sharply increase - could have three components.
Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to introduce additional unconventional measures to drive rates in the opposite direction, even if that means putting further downward pressure on some government bonds that are already trading at negative nominal yields
We focus on forecasts of the quarterly average level of 7 different interest rates: the federal funds rate and the nominal yields
of Treasury securities at 6 different maturities between 3 months and 10 years.
"Given the backdrop of low inflation, low nominal yields
and the significant compression in valuations driven by the wall of CB liquidity, real returns/yields are now the dominant differentiator in terms of investment flows and currency support.