Projections of industry employment resulted in sizable errors for both the BLS and the naive models.
Although both the BLS and naive models expected a decline over the projection period, BLS expected less contraction, improving its performance over the naive results.
Sadly, discussions by professional historians have been dominated by implicit models that downplay the ability of an unfettered market to achieve widespread prosperity, preferring naive models
in which government can snap its fingers and magically solve all of society's perceived ills--if the opposition would only get out of the way.
For the estimation of naive models
we used a generalized linear model (GLM) with a binomial distribution and logit link function to address this interval restriction.
22) are similar, but with the rolling equally weighted and naive models
The discrepancy in the performance of the two naive models
also illustrated the important role of seasonal adjustment.
In the high risk category, tests on the mean (MSE) differences and the frequency of lower forecast error, on a consistent basis, reveal that accounting models significantly outperformed their competing naive models
have proven very satisfactory in forecasting time series models, and are therefore appropriate bench marks against which to compare estimated VAR models.
Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naive Models
To provide a baseline estimation and comparison, we ran naive models
that did not account for the unobservable correlation between insurance and use of care.
In actuality, the benchmarks are naive models
such as: (1) projecting the latest available information; or (2) predicting that the change over the forecast period is equal to that observed over the previous time interval, which is of the same length as the forecast period.
In particular, Atkeson and Ohanian (2001) present evidence indicating that one-year-ahead inflation forecasts from several NAIRU (nonaccelerating-inflation rate of unemployment) Phillips curves are no more accurate than those from a naive model
that predicts inflation next year will be the same as it had been over the past year.