Naive Model

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Naive Model

A very complicated economic or political science model that is likely to be highly inaccurate. Naive models are sometimes created intentionally in academia to demonstrate the idea that complex models are not necessarily predictive. Sometimes, however, they are used to clarify thinking, even if their results are inaccurate.

References in periodicals archive ?

Sims, 1980) moved away from using a structural model to univariate time-series naive models and subsequently to the vector autoregression (VAR) model.

MACROECONOMETRICS: STATISTICAL ALCHEMY AT THE FINAL STAGE

These methods can be generally categorised into four types: (1) naive models, e.g.

USING LAND-USE MODELLING TO STATISTICALLY DOWNSCALE POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO SMALL AREAS

Projections of industry employment resulted in sizable errors for both the BLS and the naive models. Again, in both models, errors for 2008 and 2010 were much larger than those errors for 2006.

Evaluation of BLS employment, labor force and macroeconomic projections to 2006, 2008, and 2010

Sadly, discussions by professional historians have been dominated by implicit models that downplay the ability of an unfettered market to achieve widespread prosperity, preferring naive models in which government can snap its fingers and magically solve all of society's perceived ills--if the opposition would only get out of the way.

Symposium on successful presidential economic policies

For the estimation of naive models we used a generalized linear model (GLM) with a binomial distribution and logit link function to address this interval restriction.

How does drug treatment for diabetes compare between Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plans (MAPDs) and stand-alone Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs)?

The table shows classification comparisons between naive models that assume mat no bonds are called, logit models without the refunding constraint variables, and logit models including the refunding constraint variables.

Do Nonrefunding Provisions Constrain Corporate Behavior? Evidence from Calls

The discrepancy in the performance of the two naive models also illustrated the important role of seasonal adjustment.

Modeling the impact of sudden environmental changes on visitor arrival forecasts: the case of the Gulf War

OLS-based naive models. This reduction, however, is not sufficiently large to negate the predictive performance of the models combining both ARMs and beta, relative to the beta-only models.

Accounting data and the prediction of risk in the extremes

"Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naive Models." Political Behavior 6: 9-21.

Weather forecasters should be so accurate: a response to "Forewarned before Forecast." (election forecasts)

To provide a baseline estimation and comparison, we ran naive models that did not account for the unobservable correlation between insurance and use of care.

The impact of private insurance coverage on veterans' use of VA care: insurance and selection effects

In actuality, the benchmarks are naive models such as: (1) projecting the latest available information; or (2) predicting that the change over the forecast period is equal to that observed over the previous time interval, which is of the same length as the forecast period.

Evaluating BLS labor force, employment, and occupation projections for 2000: in 1989, BLS first projected estimates for the year 2000 of the labor force, employment, and occupations; in most cases, the accuracy of BLS projections were comparable to estimates from naive extrapolated models

Our notion of robustness is that the model consistently lies near the top of performance lists of alternative models and is consistently more successful than models based only on past inflation, such as Atkeson and Ohanian's naive model.