Naive Model

Naive Model

A very complicated economic or political science model that is likely to be highly inaccurate. Naive models are sometimes created intentionally in academia to demonstrate the idea that complex models are not necessarily predictive. Sometimes, however, they are used to clarify thinking, even if their results are inaccurate.
References in periodicals archive ?
We discuss the results of a simulation experiment in which we compare the proposed model to the naive model that ignores misclassification.
However, looking at Figure 9, it is clear that the naive model did not offer a correct estimation (the slope is far from 1 and the prediction interval does not surround the 1: 1 line), even when providing appropriate [R.sup.2] values.
This test was frequently used by the Cowles Commission and, following the naive-model approach, Sims (1980) developed the vector autoregression (VAR) model, which introduces multiple variables in a naive model.
The results of the ECM forecasts were compared to a naive model forecast.
Since no comparison data were available for the majority of publication series, BLS projections also are weighed against the performance of a naive model. (5) Finally, analyzing employment by shares and levels helps determine whether BLS projections provided accurate information for selecting industries in which to pursue a career.
In all instances, the RMSE ratios are greater than or nearly indistinguishable from 1 and, hence, the naive model outpredicts the factor models.
I also compare levels of accuracy for projections including a naive model, the NT Department of Treasury and Finances NTPOP model (described in full in [25]) and projections compiled by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing [26].
Using only vehicle-specific data yielded a model of only 0.4, and the naive model (here using the average gap value of about 3.5) yielded a value of nearly O.
"Naive model" method assumes that the variable value in the next period is equal to the one recorded at actual moment.
This paper has examined the modeling and forecasting of historical fishmeal prices, comparing the AR and MS-AR models with a naive model. The purpose of introducing a Markov-switching model for the fishmeal price is to achieve higher accuracy in the price modeling and to produce better forecasts.
In the naive model, the GDP growth forecast is recursively set equal to the average GDP growth rate over the past five years.