Long-term unemployment rate
, which has been decreasing for three years, declined by further 0.
AR activity rate, LTUR long-term unemployment rate
, YUR youth unemployment rate, EMS export market share, PSD private sector debt, UR unemployment rate, GGD general government debt, NIIP net international investment position, REER real effective exchange rate, CA current account balance, NULC nominal unit labour cost, PSCF private sector credit flow, TFSL total financial sector liabilities, HPI house price index.
The Fed estimates that a normal, long-term unemployment rate
has a range of 4.
The average of the long-term unemployment rate
among youths (15 to 29 years of age) in the EU-28 was of 6.
On average, a consolidation of 1% of GDP increases the long-term unemployment rate
Although the short-term unemployment rate indicates labor market tightness, being about 1 pp below its long-term average (Figure 7), the long-term unemployment rate
(27-weeks or more) remained about 0.
21) We found that the coefficient on the short-term unemployment rate was much larger than that on the long-term unemployment rate
, and a test of the difference between these two effects was statistically significant.
The unemployment rate remains elevated because of an unacceptably high prevalence of long-term unemployment, but it is encouraging that roughly half the decline in the overall unemployment rate over the past year has come from a falling long-term unemployment rate
, a disproportionate contribution since the long-term unemployed represent about one-third of the total unemployed, Furman said.
The dark line indicates the long-term unemployment rate
(defined as the number unemployed for 27 weeks or longer divided by the labor force), whereas the dotted line is the similarly defined unemployment rate for those unemployed for 14 weeks or less, and the dashed line is the rate for the intermediate group unemployed for 15 to 26 weeks.
Elsewhere, though, things really are dismal: unemployment in the eurozone remains stubbornly high and the long-term unemployment rate
in the US still far exceeds its pre-recession levels.
However, what really distinguishes the Great Recession from past episodes of high unemployment is the long-term unemployment rate
(the percentage of the civilian labor force unemployed for more than 26 weeks).
Using the long-term unemployment rate
to capture the severity of recessions finds a greater role for cyclical factors in the recent decline in participation compared with using the unemployment rate to measure the severity of recessions.