A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves
, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008-2009 Economic Crisis.
The central bank's dilemma, the inflation-deflation paradox and a new interpretation of the Kondratieff waves
Perhaps the so-called Kondratieff waves (Kondratieff, 1926) are not only, as assumed, related to the invention of key technologies, but also to the cycles of the financial system.
The Kondratieff waves could be used to explain the long economic cycles of our financial system.
The Kondratieff waves have been the subject of much debate among economists and academics for over 60 years now.
In any event, the Kondratieff wave theory implies that the capitalist economy in the year 2005 is entering, or has recently entered, an upswing that will last for 25-30 years, that is until 2030 or thereabouts.
Other categories that come to mind are the Kondratieff waves
and shorter periodic fluctuations as described by Juglar and Kitchen.
The theory and empirical evidence behind Kondratieff waves
of economic activity punctuated by bursts of clusters of technological innovation at a generic level is outlined and fruitfully discussed.
Goldstein's dates, for much of the period under study, are closest to the economic cycles known as Kondratieff waves
Phases of Economic Growth, 1850-1973: Kondratieff Waves and Kuznets Swings.
Schumpeter's magnum opus on Business Cycles (1939) was concerned with the two- to three-year Kitchin inventory cycle, the ten-year Juglar trade cycle, and the fifty- to sixty-year Kondratieff wave.
Solomos Solomou's impeccably mainstream book is the first to consider the Kuznets and Kondratieff cycles together; and it may have ambitions to be the last, as it altogether dismisses the Kondratieff wave even as it argues that the Kuznets swing is a far more widespread phenomenon than is generally recognized.