Kondratiev Wave

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Kondratiev Wave

A theory stating that capitalist economies go through phases much longer than ordinary business cycles. That is, capitalist economies have cycles of 45-60 years, where they perform alternately well and then poorly. The cycle then starts over. For example, the Second Industrial Revolution lasted from approximately 1850 to 1900; the global economy performed well in the first half of the cycle and was characterized by depression in the second half. Kondratiev wave theory was proposed by a Soviet economist and is more popular in Marxist circles than outside of them. See also: Kremlinomics.

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Considering in turn topical syntheses and case studies, they discuss such aspects as Mexico City, Merida, and the world: Kondratieff waves on the periphery; agrarian ecology and historical contingency in landscape change; material culture, status, and identity in post-independence Central Mexico: urban and rural dimensions; cross-cultural interactions and Lacandon ethnogenesis in the Southern Maya Lowland frontier AD 1400 to the present; and the underlying aim of historical archaeology.

Colonial and Postcolonial Change in Mesoamerica: Archaeology as Historical Anthropology

A spectral analysis of world GDP dynamics: Kondratieff waves, Kuznets swings, Juglar and Kitchin cycles in global economic development, and the 2008-2009 economic crisis.

Estimation of the world economic system stability from 1963 to 2013 by using a discrete dynamic model

The Kondratieff waves have been the subject of much debate among economists and academics for over 60 years now.

Cities of the fifth wave--the rise of the traditional-modern city: cities have always prospered and grown in parallel with long waves of economic development, and a new wave is just beginning, argues John Montgomery--one that will place demands on the wealth-generating capacity of individual cities and the extent to which they can innovate and adapt their built form to support emerging new economic sectors

Other categories that come to mind are the Kondratieff waves and shorter periodic fluctuations as described by Juglar and Kitchen.

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages

The theory and empirical evidence behind Kondratieff waves of economic activity punctuated by bursts of clusters of technological innovation at a generic level is outlined and fruitfully discussed.

Technology & society: a Canadian perspective

Goldstein's dates, for much of the period under study, are closest to the economic cycles known as Kondratieff waves. Modelski (1987) notes that the duration of one leadership cycle corresponds roughly to two Kondratieff waves.

Global political order, economic change, and armed conflict: coevolving systems and the use of force

Phases of Economic Growth, 1850-1973: Kondratieff Waves and Kuznets Swings.

Schumpeter's magnum opus on Business Cycles (1939) was concerned with the two- to three-year Kitchin inventory cycle, the ten-year Juglar trade cycle, and the fifty- to sixty-year Kondratieff wave. Postwar scholars devoted much attention to the newly discovered Kuznets swing of approximately twenty years' duration and showed little faith or interest in the Kondratieff wave; but the end of the long postwar boom seems to have generated something of a Kondratieff revival, at least on the fringes of the discipline.

Phases of Economic Growth, 1850-1973: Kondratieff Waves and Kuznets Swings

In economic theory there is a generally accepted idea of the existence of four periodic processes: Kitchin and Juglar cycles, Kuznets rhythms and Kondratieff waves. It is generally accepted that they have different economic nature (Abramovitz, 1961; Akerman, 1932; Ayres, 2006; Bernstein, 1940; Dator, 2006; Dickson, 1983; Diebolt & Doliger, 2006, 2008; Forrester, 1977; Freeman, 1987; Glazyev, 1993; Grinin, Korotayev, & Malkov, 2010; Hirooka, 2006; Juglar, 1862; Kitchin, 1923; Kondratieff, 1922; 1925; 1926; 1928; 1935; 1984; 2002; Kuznets, 1930; Maevskiy, 1997; Mensch, 1979; Modelski & Thompson, 1996; Modelski, 2001; 2006; Papenhausen, 2008; Rumyantseva, 2003; Shiode et al., 2004; Silberling, 1943; Solomou, 1989; Tylecote, 1992; Van Duijn, 1983; Yakovets, 2001).

Chaldaeva & Kilyachkov (2012) showed that this approximation explains the emergence of Kitchin and Juglar economic cycles (Kitchin, 1923; Juglar, 1862), Kuznets rhythms (Kuznets, 1930) and Kondratieff waves (Kondratieff, 1922; 1925; 1926; 1935) as a bifurcation of some basic cycle (T [approximately equal to] 3 years).

Application of discrete dynamic model for the assessment of stability of the world economy development

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