Kondratiev Wave

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Kondratiev Wave

A theory stating that capitalist economies go through phases much longer than ordinary business cycles. That is, capitalist economies have cycles of 45-60 years, where they perform alternately well and then poorly. The cycle then starts over. For example, the Second Industrial Revolution lasted from approximately 1850 to 1900; the global economy performed well in the first half of the cycle and was characterized by depression in the second half. Kondratiev wave theory was proposed by a Soviet economist and is more popular in Marxist circles than outside of them. See also: Kremlinomics.

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Another possible explanation of the productivity slowdown is the transition from one set of technologies and industries to another, the famous Kondratieff cycle.

Employment, Growth and Finance

There is also the 56-year Kondratieff cycle of rise and fall in business cycles ending in the Kondratieff winter or depression.

The Road to Destruction

The Kondratieff cycle is completed in 50-60 years, the Juglar cycle in 7-10 years, and the Kitchin cycle in 2-3 years.

1786-1842: First Kondratieff cycle, connected to the growing use of hydro power for industrial purposes (61)

1843-97: Second Kondratieff cycle, connected to railway growth (62)

1898-1913: Third Kondratieff cycle, connected to electrification.

Sylos then mentions four stages of capitalistic evolution, close to the Schumpeterian idea of Kondratieff cycles.

Sylos Labini's unpublished notes on Schumpeter's Business Cycles

But for readers looking for such elucidation, it appears that Wallerstein assumes prior knowledge of such key concepts as Kondratieff cycles (p.

Wallerstein, Immanuel. Alternatives: The United States Confronts the World

One is the so-called Kondratieff cycles that historically were 50--60 years in length.

The depression: a long-term view

In the third chapter, a series of possible future economic scenarios presents a broad vision of the BRIMCs' nations in the 21st century, using hegemonic cycles and Kondratieff cycles theories.