Desai sees the global economic slowdown following the Lehman collapse and the transatlantic financial crisis in 2008 as the beginning of the downswing of a Kondratieff cycle
, after the 1992-2007 boom period.
The long Kondratieff cycle
lasts 50-60 years (Diebolt, Doliger, 2005).
The Sixth Kondratieff Cycle
the Era of Financial Market Instruments: A Reflection on the Australia vs US Subprime Mortgage Market, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5), 37-41.
The Kondratieff cycle
is completed in 50-60 years, the Juglar cycle in 7-10 years, and the Kitchin cycle in 2-3 years.
* Periodic Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction, partially tied to the Kondratieff cycle
There is also the 56-year Kondratieff cycle
of rise and fall in business cycles ending in the Kondratieff winter or depression.
Another possible explanation of the productivity slowdown is the transition from one set of technologies and industries to another, the famous Kondratieff cycle
. An interesting hypothesis to examine would be the interrelationships between demographic transition, technological transition, and the stage of economic development.
The best heuristic model for the Age of State Socialism is the theory of long waves with its half a century long Kondratieff cycle
beginning after World War II and ending with the 1989 revolutions.
Similarly, Mandel (1980:36-61) argued that in European countries over the past one hundred years the intensification of workers' militancy during the long upswing phase of prosperity of the Kondratieff cycle
has forced employers to pursue "radical" technological innovations.
In the third chapter, a series of possible future economic scenarios presents a broad vision of the BRIMCs' nations in the 21st century, using hegemonic cycles and Kondratieff cycles
One is the so-called Kondratieff cycles
that historically were 50--60 years in length.