In a Green Paper, Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply, in 2000 the
IEA warned that if Russia and the former Soviet republics were called upon to supply the growing markets in east Asia, EU countries could face significant competition and increased prices.
In this report,
IEA took into account the International Monetary Fund's recent downgrading of the economic outlook: it reduced by 0.1 percentage points for both 2019 and 2020; its forecast for global GDP growth to 3.2 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.
IEA chalks up the slowdown to forecasts for weaker economic growth, a return to average weather conditions and diminishing opportunities to switch from coal to gas in electric power plants.
'(Investment in coal plants) was still higher than the levels projected in
IEA scenarios, with the largest differences found in Asia, particularly in China, India, and Southeast Asia,' the group added.
The
IEA's forecast came just a few weeks after the US exported a record 3.6mbpd, emerging as a major global exporter of petroleum products including refined fuels.
The
IEA suggests: "OPEC producers will be squeezed by US shale until the mid-2020s, and OPEC's loss of market power to what was once its biggest customer will continue until the middle of the next decade as US shale oil thrives."
Overall, global supply fell by 1.4 mbd to 99.7 mbd in January, according to the
IEA, which said cuts imposed by authorities in the province of Alberta in Canada, which is not party to the Vienna Agreement, also contributed to the reduction.
As for the demand,
IEA believes that there is a mixed picture.
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He accused the
IEA of over-stating the role of shale oil and gas in a global market, saying: "We should not be scared.
