Historical volatility

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Historical volatility

Fluctuations estimated from a historical time series.

Historical Volatility

A measure of a security's stability over a given period of time. While there are various ways to calculate it, the most common way is to compute the average deviation from the average price over the period of time one wishes to measure. The historical volatility is often compared to the implied volatility to determine if a security is overvalued or undervalued. Generally, securities with a higher historical volatility carry more risk. It is also called realized volatility or the standard deviation. See also: Volatility.

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While the historical volatility of an asset return is readily computed from observed asset returns and the implied volatility is computed from observed option price there may be inaccurate estimators of the volatility expected to prevail over a period of time.

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FT-SE 100 STOCK INDEX FUTURES VOLATILITY AND FT-SE 100 INDEX OPTIONS IMPLIED VOLATILITY

[p.sub.t] is the day logarithm yield of the targeted asset, [bar.p] is the average yield, r([tau]) represents the risk-free interest rate, and [sigma]([tau]) denotes the historical volatility of the targeted asset.

New JLS-Factor Model versus the Standard JLS Model: A Case Study on Chinese Stock Bubbles

They found that the implied volatility is a better estimator of future volatility than historical volatility, being efficient and less biased in relation to the previous studies, particularly in the period after the 1987 New York Stock Exchange crash.

Does implied volatility contain information about future volatility? Evidence from the Petrobras options market/A volatilidade implicita contem informacoes sobre a volatilidade futura? Evidencias do mercado de opcoes de acoes da petrobras

(2) The data period was extended to September 30, 2005 for historical volatility calculations, including those in Table 2 and Fig.

Volatility relationship between crude oil and petroleum products

The experimental-sets structures the option pricing model through ENFIS using various time horizon strategies and the comparative-sets structures the option pricing model by BSG with considering the historical volatility and implied volatility.

Exchange options pricing with evolutionary neural-based fuzzy inference systems

Traditionally, most companies have calculated historical volatility values and used these (without much additional analysis) in their estimation of option fair value.

New option expensing rulings spawn new options: to expense or not expense stock options is no longer the question, but new rulings have raised significant compliance questions, while simultaneously adding a new source of financial expense--two often-conflicting objectives

The historical volatility, calculated from actual prices, has moved around considerably more.

Money and financial markets

Attracted by the low historical volatility of the apartment market, a flood of riskaverse capital has flowed to the sector, driving down cap rates for acquisitions and new development.

PPR/Dodge momentum index: real estate market at, or near, bottom

On the other hand, assume that the maximum historical volatility of the underlying asset that has been observed over any one-month horizon is 30 percent (annualized).

The Risks and Rewards of Selling Volatility

One measure of risk we use throughout this article is the observed historical volatility in revenue growth.

Scouting Top Apartment Markets

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between future volatility and implied and historical volatility using data from Alegria and Rodriguez [1997].

An Application of Pade Approximation to Volatility Modeling

While companies should consider historical volatility, this may prove difficult in the future (given the recent history of stock market fluctuations).