These dates do not coincide with the dates on which these countries joined the ERM II
(May 2005 for Latvia and June 2004 for Lithuania) because the Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) fixed regime classification requires narrower fluctuation bands than the 15% fluctuation bands dictated by ERM II
The programme may get delays but most probably it would be approved in a few months time, which would open the door to the ERM II
. Unofficially, however, there have been hints about a new postponement.
Two of the countries (Estonia and Slovenia) have already joined the ERM II
and, judging from current information, they will be in a good position to adopt the euro in the minimum required time (i.e., around mid-2006).
A somewhat less ambitious target regarding early ERM II
and Eurosystem membership might offer candidate countries greater leeway for achieving a proper balance between nominal and real convergence.
While seven of the 10 NMSs already decided to enter the ERM II
, which is a requirement for the eventual adoption of the euro under the Maastricht Economic Convergence Criteria, the remaining three NMSs (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland), for the time being, opted for a floating exchange rate regime, anchored by inflation targeting, relying on an inflation target that is at or near the price stability definition of the European System of Central Banks ("below but close to 2 percent").
This paper reviews the strategy of the Bank of Slovenia designed for ERM II
entry and inside ERM II
The Agency would raise Bulgaria's credit rating when entering ERM II
. Further progress in structural and institutional reforms would also increase the country's creditworthiness, notes the analysis.
13]: "One of the conditions of Poland's accession to the EMU will be the inclusion of the zloty in the ERM II
system for at least two years.
Although the intention of this move was to prevent further speculation of future appreciation of the currency, markets recognised it as a shift in monetary policy to support a weaker ERM II
Stress tests are already running and are due to the demand for Bulgaria to enter the Eurozone waiting room (ERM II
mechanism) and the Banking Union, the 24-hour newspaper writes.