The next recession will start as a demand shock
, (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/morgan-stanley-sees-credible-bear-case-for-a-us-recession.html) according to Ellen Zentner , Morgan Stanley chief U.S.
The sustained increase in non-oil investment for more than a year in response to a positive oil-specific demand shock
in the full sample is a notable result.
However, the present tariff related uncertainty present a risk for a "demand shock
" that could lead to an inventory unwind in the semi supply chain, Moore warns investors.
Operating profits from serving the local region for a firm with productivity [phi] and local demand shock
[[lambda].sub.i] [member of] [LAMBDA] are
respectively, [sigma] is the common output elasticity to the effective exchange rate, [s.sub.A] and [S.sub.g] are the nominal exchange rates of the two countries expressed with respect to the common currency, (2) [beta] is the relative weight of each country with respect to the other, (3) and [u.sub.A] is an aggregate demand shock
that is assumed to affect only country A.
To better understand export diversification in Lebanon, while taking into account highly sophisticated domains of production and an absence of a policy-driven structural change, the literature has attributed changes in sophistication levels in different countries to two key causes: A productivity shock or a demand shock
. As Lebanese firms continue to suffer burdensome costs of production and a lack of adequate skills, the increase in Lebanese export sophistication has been largely driven by demand shocks
Because this is shorter than it takes for an initial demand shock
to reverberate through the supply chain, the contract has a significant risk of painful and premature failure.
But in the short term, the cutbacks in investment and hiring in Beaudry and Portier's model would look at lot like a demand shock
If oil and stock prices move in the same direction, QNB interprets this as being caused by a demand shock
. Conversely, if they move in opposite directions, QNB interprets this as being driven by an oil supply shock.
Second, we find that in the presence of a positive technology shock on the final output sector and a positive demand shock
on preferences, RES production growth is higher with an energy policy intervention based on a stock of public capital than with a monetary subsidy.
* China's Demand Shock
and Its Geopolitical Consequences