The world cotton price forecasting by using Box-Jenkins model
The ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), known also as the Box-Jenkins Model
, uses only stationary series (mean and variance are constant).
Data obtained through the Box-Jenkins model
, which were applied to develop index forecasting for trading volume of options on futures contracts, tend to show a decrease in the value question.
5]; Appendix) was formulated for the Box-Jenkins model
developed in step 2.
The Box-Jenkins model
resembles the OLS model with a few technical embellishments.
The box-jenkins model
includes several major steps.
Typically, effective fitting of Box-Jenkins models
requires at least a moderately long series.
Box and Jenkins (1976) first explained the ARIMA method, and ARIMA models are frequently signified to as Box-Jenkins models
Still, it's nice to sit down and watch your computer do most of the thinking for you, spitting out solutions to complex Box-Jenkins models
every two seconds (if you have a built-in math coprocessor) or every thirty seconds (if you don't).
Pierce and Haugh  have shown that Box-Jenkins models
estimated for such working series will preserve the causal relationships that exist between the variables.