The aim of this paper is to evaluate the level of contagion in the Latin American exchange rate market using a methodology that goes beyond the simple analysis of correlation breakdowns.
The previous results indicate that there are asymmetric co-movements in the six Latin American exchange rates. However, there are two exceptions: the Chilean peso and the Mexican peso which have tail correlations that indicate a significant symmetric dependency of 0.22 and the Argentine peso and the Peruvian nuevo sol that exhibit neither upper nor lower significant tail dependence.
Most of the estimated upper tail dependence coefficients of the six Latin American exchange rates show no significant results.
Figure 1 displays Latin American exchange rate
risk measures calculated by the system for the past three years.
In a pure accounting sense, Engel shows that real American exchange rate
changes are accounted for almost completely by changes in nominal exchange rates; prices (even the relative price of nontradables) account for almost none of the variance, even at low frequencies.(5) Chinn and Johnston find that government spending and productivity trends help in the analysis of real exchange rates; their finding is confirmed by Canzoneri, Cumby, and Diba; and by De Gregorio and Wolf.(6) On the other hand, Clarida and Gali find little evidence of important sup-ply-side determinants.(7)
Chief financial officer Pierre-Jean Sivignon told reporters the market consensus for 2013 earnings before interest and taxes of around 2.2 billion euros ($2.92 billion) was "reasonable," assuming that Latin American exchange rates
versus the euro did not deteriorate.