Advance Estimate

Advance Estimate

In calculating quarterly GDP, the first estimate published approximately one month after the end of a quarter. It includes all information then available, but because relevant information may not be available immediately or may be subject to revision, it is subject to scrutiny and is usually revised in the preliminary estimate and later in the final estimate. As a result, the advance estimate is considered important as a guideline to performance in a quarter, but it is not necessarily the most accurate measure.
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The Department of Commerce indicated in a report that the GDP estimate released today is based "on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month." It noted that in the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent, where the revision "primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE)." The report noted that the percent change in real GDP in the second quarter was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate." For his part, President Donald Trump tweeted "the Economy is doing GREAT, with tremendous upside potential!
Finally, this month's "GDP and the Economy" article details the advance estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2019.
A day earlier, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) lowered the FY 19 GDP growth in second advance estimate of national income to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent in the first advance estimate.
The Central Statistics Organisation on Thursday said nominal GDP stood at Rs 167,73,145 crore (up 10% on-year) as against the second advance estimate of Rs 167,51,688 crore (9.8%).The Centre's total expenditure was around Rs 21.43 lakh crore in FY18 or 96.6% of the RE.
This is an advance estimate and advance estimates are subject to revisions - usually two-three revisions.
The Commerce Department figure, an advance estimate that is likely to be revised, undershot the 0.7 percent growth forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters. The data also showed fourth-quarter GDP growth unrevised at 1.4 percent.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose an annualized 1.9 percent in the third quarter from the prior quarter, the government said Wednesday, much better than its advance estimate issued in October of 0.1 percent growth.
According to dpa, the previously quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.5 per cent, it said in an advance estimate.
When it comes to the first quarter, data released today proved shocking, as the final reading for GDP growth came in at -2.9 percent (annualised quarterly based), down from a preliminary -1 percent and advance estimate of +0.1 percent.
This is considerably above the advance estimate of 2.8 percent that was released in November, and it's the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2012.
Investors are also waiting for the release of the advance estimate of US third quarter economic growth later Thursday and October jobs figures on Friday.

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