A Priori Probability

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Related to A Priori Probability: conditional probability, A posteriori probability, Empirical probability, Subjective probability

A Priori Probability

In statistics, the use of logic to estimate the probability of an event. For example, when considering a company's earnings, the company can make a profit, suffer a loss, or break even in a given year. All other things being equal, there is a 1/3 a priori probability of each scenario occurring.

References in periodicals archive ?

Knight has a graduated scale from highly probabilistic risks calculated through a priori probability analysis to a category that he defines as beyond all forms of anticipation; events so unique, instances so exceptional that they essentially fall outside of our ability to comprehend them.

Theorising risk and uncertainty in social enquiry: exploring the contribution of Frank Knight

However, task complexity or information-processing pertaining to the a priori probability of a hit remains relatively unexplored despite the long recognition that this factor provides important insights into the psi process (Kennedy, 1978; Scott, 1961; Thouless, 1935).

Note that the presence of this redundancy does not change the a priori probability of a successful outcome.