technological forecasting

technological forecasting

the process of predicting the direction and scope of future technological advances. With rapid advances in science and technology shortening PRODUCT LIFE CYCLES and improving production techniques, firms need to forecast technological developments. Technological forecasting helps the firm to formulate its BUSINESS STRATEGY by identifying opportunities and threats presented by technical change, and assists in the planning of RESEARCH and DEVELOPMENT programmes by identifying new areas to explore. Technological forecasting can be done in several ways, by means of:
  1. methods which identify and extrapolate trends derived from historical data; for example, in plotting trends in data storage capacity and information processing speed over time, it is possible to identify the development of, first, valve-based computer technology, then transistor-based technology, present semiconductor (silicon chip)-based technology, and future fibre optics-based technology;
  2. methods based upon the subjective impressions of practising technologists. A single expert may write in some detail about the possible future of his own field of technology (‘scenario'writing), or a consensus of expert opinion may be sought, using the DELPHI approach where the experts first independently give opinions concerning the development of a scientific field, then distil these opinions to produce an overall view of likely advances. See BRAINSTORMING, NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE.
References in periodicals archive ?
Foresight research is published in numerous journals, with notable well-ranked journals that inform public administration research including Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, and Research Policy.
We had recently coauthored a paper, The Impact of Foresight on Entrepreneurship: the Wales 2010 Case Study, for the international journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
A two-stage technology foresight model with system dynamics simulation and its application in the Chinese ICT industry, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 79: 1254-1267.
His works have been published in several books and in peer-reviewed journals, among them International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, and Business & Society.
The agency later began conducting technological forecasting surveys in earnest in 1971, with a large-scale survey based on a questionnaire directed at 2,000-4,000 experts conducted roughly every five years (by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology [MEXT] since FY2001).
Modified Delphi methodology for technology forecasting case study of electronics and information technology in India, Technological Forecasting & Socical Change, 58(1-2): 155-165.
2) This method "has become a fundamental tool for those in the area of technological forecasting.
A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75(1): 131-141.
Walsh, Roadmapping a Disruptive" Technology: A Case Study: The Emerging Microsystems and Top-down Nanosystems Industry, 71 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 161, 165-66 (2004); Dana Nicolay, Challenges and Opportunities for Nanotechnology Policies: An Australian Perspective, 1 NANOTECH.
Determination of planning of technology development and technological forecasting features are the primary purpose of the research, choice of methods for forecasting of information and communication technologies, defining of peculiarities of information and communication technologies, exposure of connection between the indexes of development of technologies and technological factors, market development of information and communication technology (ICT), their components and information and communication services as well as an adaptation of subsections co-operation in the information and communication enterprise in relation to the selection of innovative technologies.
Wells produced an impressive body of social and technological forecasting in his great nonfiction work Anticipations, published in 1901.
Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government: Methods and Applications.

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