secular trend

Secular Market

A market as defined by its overarching, long-term trends. Generally, a secular market refers to trends over a period of five or more years. A secular market may be bullish or bearish, and, in market analysis, takes precedence over opposite, short-term trends that happen within the secular market. For example, the Great Depression in the United States lasted from 1929 until World War II (certainly a bearish secular market). Even though some years saw significant GDP growth (including 14.2% growth in 1936), this did not prevent the secular market from being bearish. Thus, a secular market describes general trends in the market without regard for anomalous trends in the interim. See also: Cyclical market.

secular trend

The relatively consistent movement of a variable over a long period. A stock in a secular uptrend is an indicator that the security has experienced an extended period of rising prices.

secular trend

see SALES FORECASTING.

Fig. 175 Secular trend. The movement in the UK's gross domestic product (volume basis), 1994–2003. Source: Office for National Statistics.

secular trend

a long-term movement, either upwards or downwards, in some economic variable. For example, Fig. 175 shows that the GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) - in current prices - of the UK has risen steadily in the period since 1994. See also TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS, CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS.