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Presidential Election Cycle

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Presidential Election Cycle
A theory of market performance stating that markets are weakest in the year following a presidential election, regardless of whether a new president or party take power. This theory held up well until the late 20th century, when the presidents' first years saw strong performance. For example, the first year of George H.W. Bush's presidency had strong market performance, but his administration ended with a recession.

presidential election cycle
The tendency of the stock market to move in four-year cycles with rising markets occurring during the period before presidential elections. The presidential election cycle is based on observation of past market movements and on the theory that holds that incumbent presidents manipulate the economy before elections in such a way that bull markets ensue. Also called election cycle.


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Preelection Poll Volume and Poll Aggregation in 2008 The number of preelection polls conducted during a typical presidential election cycle has grown substantially over the past few decades.
And I’m not referring just to the next presidential election cycle, which won’t kick off for another two years… but to the next congressional election of November 2010, less than two years hence.
The severe compression of the post-convention campaign makes this both the longest and shortest Presidential election cycle ever.
 
 
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