The composite New Hampshire index of state leading indicators
, which is produced jointly by e-forecasting.
Third, it is easier to see the time period between changes in the leading indicator
and the data point you want to forecast.
The OECD's leading indicator
for the euro area rose to 100.
During the Bloomberg interview, its CEO highlighted several aspects which convince him and his team that their leading indicators
are correct in calling a recession.
are basically business measurements," says Donna Rhodes, a principal researcher for the Lean Aerospace Initiative (LAI) at MIT and co-head of the leading indicators
The outline of the paper is as follows: we shall explain the P-star model of inflation indicator, discuss methodology to measure potential output and trend velocity and data used to estimate the model in Section 2; leading indicator
of inflation in Pakistan is estimated in Section 3, the regression results and causality analysis are presented in Section 4.
9 in June, suggesting the upturn began during the second and third quarters of the year, slightly earlier than the leading indicator
Logic dictates that these leading indicators
foreshadow a slowdown.
A leading indicator
can then be chosen to predict movements in this cyclical variable.
We concluded that several of the existing components of the leading indicator
contain little useful cyclical information for real-time forecasting while some measures not included provide more insight into the future direction of the business cycle.
For example, if no data are available for a prime mover, then it cannot be used as a leading indicator
, short of the lengthy process of developing new data that cover a substantial time period.
The layoff rate in manufacturing was initially selected as a leading indicator
of business cycles in 1960.