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expectations hypothesis |
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| Using both threshold ARCH and vector autoregression frameworks, we find that for all countries except Germany, the forecasting error has decreased for interest rates on the respective government bonds across most maturity lengths, and that the expectations hypothesis has performed better at the short end of the yield curve. To derive a simplified model, I employ the rational expectations hypothesis and the innovation accounting and vector autoregressive methods. A more obscure theme is rational expectations; more precisely, the inappropriateness of the rational expectations hypothesis. |
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