It pointed out that the
real interest rate of bank deposit reflects the real returns for the persons who lend and deposit money at banks after removing the effects of the inflation to reach 5.59 percent in August 2019 against 13.2 percent in August 2017.
'Primary reason for this increase is to keep the
real interest rate positive in light of rising inflation during 1QFY20 on the back of increase in prices of electricity and gas,' he said.
It has also taken into account the rationalisation of tariffs and duties and the narrowing
real interest rate as it declined to 1.6 per cent in comparison with the four-year average of 2.85 per cent earlier.
It takes a heroic disposition to assume that this magic number exists or that, even if it does, our collective endeavors will result in an actual
real interest rate close to it.
The goal of this article is to ask whether monetary policy is a cause of the low
real interest rate on safe assets since the onset of the 2007-08 financial crisis.
The authors measure the
real interest rate that has a neutral effect on the NBU monetary policy.
Keywords Natural
real interest rate * Markov switching * Monetary policy rules
About half of the 1.56-percentage-point rise is attributable to an increase in the
real interest rate, as measured by the inflation-indexed ten-year Treasury bonds, whose expected real yield has risen from zero in July 2016 to 0.82 per cent now.
The real federal funds rate and the
real interest rate on 3-month Treasury bills have been consistently negative since December 2008.
Since the residuals showed on figure 2 are stationary, and the estimated equation has theoretical grounds (
real interest rate parity), the possibility of spurious regression is ruled out, but we could be potentially missing a cointegration relationship between the variables.
The cause of the secular fall in the
real interest rate over the past 35 years, that Summers noted, is a matter of dispute, particularly when the share of profits is tending to increase.