Index of Leading Economic Indicators

An index of indicators that have, in the past, predicted market downturns. It is published monthly by The Conference Board and is considered an important index of future movements. When the index rises, analysts expect the markets to continue to rise, and when it falls, they anticipate a fall in the markets. The components of the index change from time to time, but they generally include interest rates, price movements on the S&P 500, and the change in money supply. It is important to note that the index is not entirely accurate: it has, in the past, indicated downturns that never actually happened.

index of leading economic indicators

An index that is compiled by the Conference Board, a private-sector consulting firm. The index is designed to indicate the future direction of economic activity. A rising index signals that economic activity can be expected to increase in the near future. Although variations in this index are of interest to stock analysts, stock market price movements are also considered as a separate leading indicator; therefore, the series is not particularly useful in forecasting stock price changes.

Wall Street Words: An A to Z Guide to Investment Terms for Today's Investor by David L. Scott. Copyright © 2003 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. All rights reserved.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

This monthly composite of ten economic measurements was developed to track and help forecast changing patterns in the economy. It is compiled by The Conference Board, a business research group.

The components are adjusted from time to time to help improve the accuracy of the index. In the past, it has successfully predicted major downturns, although it has also warned of some that did not materialize.

Consumer-related components include the number of building permits issued, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods, and the index of consumer expectations.

Financial components include the S&P 500 Index of widely held stocks, the real money supply, and the interest rate spread.

Business-related components include the average work week in the manufacturing sector, average initial claims for unemployment benefits, nondefense plant and equipment orders, and vendor performance, which reflects how quickly companies receive deliveries from suppliers.

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References in periodicals archive

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators moved up a better-than- expected 0.5 percent to 109.7 following a revised 0.1 percent increase in October.

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The index of leading economic indicators, a measure of economic growth six to nine months ahead, came to 37.5%, compared with a revised 50.0% in August.

Sept. Japan key economy gauge shows 9 mo. of contraction

Specifically, we develop an index of leading economic indicators (LEI) for New York State and for New Jersey over the 1972-99 period.

LEADING ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR NEW YORK STATE AND NEW JERSEY

Further, the Conference Board last week released its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators, showing a drop in November following a fall in October.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN DECEMBER DROPS FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH

According to the New Hampshire Business Review-Granite News Service Index of Leading Economic Indicators, New Hampshire's economic engine chugged along at 83.3 percent in 2000 -- 10 percent higher than 1988, the former benchmark high.

Record-setting N.H. economy stronger than ever

Taiwan's index of leading economic indicators has risen for the fourth consecutive month, signaling stronger prospects for the second half of the year.

Indicators point to revival

Like the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, we need an Index of Leading Social Indicators, perhaps with warning signs and bells that go off whenever child poverty.

This just in - old statistics

Of the remainder, the producer and consumer price indexes, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, housing starts, personal income and consumption expenditures and the index of leading economic indicators as compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S.

The Atlas of Economic Indicators

Earlier this month t was reported that the index of leading economic indicators soared 1.9 percent in December, its third straight advance, and the biggest jump since 1983.

Property industry celebrating change

Also in June, Barnds pointed out, the index of leading economic indicators rose after six negative months.

Foundry suppliers focus on economy, environment

A commonly acknowledged predictor for the national economy is the index of leading economic indicators. The index of leading economic indicators and the Arkansas Business Index move in tandem.

Recession revisited

Favorable signs about the economy's economic health are also revealed by comparing recent movements in an index of leading economic indicators with its pattern of movements just before and during previous recessions.

Statements to Congress