In January, we saw no net reserve writebacks
, but the level of provisioning was still quite low at RUB5.
Management does not rule out provisions turning into net writebacks at the end of 2010, and expects these to become sizeable in 2011E.
Thereafter, we should see an earnings recovery triggered by reserve writebacks, with support from a NIM stabilisation.
Management does not rule out net writebacks of provisions at the end of 2010, and expects these to become sizeable in 2011E.
That said, we highlight management's optimistic comments regarding writebacks, which leave some hope for an earnings recovery in 2H10, or at least suggest a strong upturn in 2011E (in line with our current expectations).
He estimates that approximately twothirds of the bank's NPLs (which comprised around 10% of the loan portfolio at 1Q10) are likely to be recovered and expects some writebacks
of reserves, potentially at the end of 2010E.
The bank targets 2x NPL coverage at YE10, and 2011 should see writebacks
5bn provisioning charges (approximately equal to the average over 2Q-4Q09) and possible writebacks
However we believe that this risk, if it materialises, is unlikely to significantly affect our numbers, as we conservatively model provisioning charges of 3-5% in 2010E and no writebacks