The SEV-maximizing action by the Agent as determined using the Patient's subjective probabilities
at the time of choice might not be the SEV-maximizing action as determined using the Patient's subjective probabilities
at some other time.
An unexpected finding from the current study was that the average subjective probabilities
after reinforcing and nonreinforcing trials (wins and streaks of losses) were in direct contrast to nonbehavioral hypothesized notions of a "gambler's fallacy" (Yackulic & Kelly, 1984).
In what follows, it will be convenient to consider the Principal Principle as being made up of two parts: a standard of admissibility, and a rule for setting subjective probabilities
that must be followed if all evidence meets this standard.
1978) have all studied the ability of individuals to transform objective probabilities to subjective probabilities
In addition, religionists with different subjective probabilities
of believing in the existence of an afterlife do not make significantly different contributions or volunteer differently, except in the case of the contribution behavior of religionists with sufficiently large afterlife rewards.
In Jeffrey's example no proposition has its probability changed to 1, and his discussion therefore raises the novel question: given that the subjective probabilities
of propositions [E.
However, subjective probabilities
should not show a systematic bias towards overestimation (optimism) or underestimation (pessimism).
The essence of these findings is that although people can estimate subjective probabilities
quite well (Lichtenstein and Fischhoff 1977), they tend to be overconfident in making their estimations and tend to believe they know more than they actually do, leading to systematic biases in the estimates (Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, and Phillips 1978).
In a parallel development, Ramsey (1931) showed that subjective probabilities
could be derived from axioms about choice among gambles.
Finally, an additional element of realism is introduced by noting that the subjective probabilities
of a nuclear accident will tend to increase over time as the reactor ages.
Despite the fact that there typically exists a small favorite-long shot bias in win betting, probabilities determined by the bettors, or subjective probabilities
, can be a good approximation of a horse's actual probability of winning.
But using the looseness in the definition of probability to allow self assessments of beliefs in terms of subjective probabilities
would run into trouble with the definition of knowledge.