Using HP-filtered real GNP
the same measures are constructed, except that the discrete observations dictate defining expansions in terms of the number of periods above trend and recessions as the number of periods below trend.
Using finite-sample critical values, they rejected the unit root null in favor of the two-break alternative for five series (real GNP
, nominal GNP, per capita real GNP
, industrial production, and employment) at a 5% significance level.
Figure 10 plots the contributions to the change in real GNP
per capita made by nine factors.
In each case for real GNP
(or GDP) and GNP (or GDP) Deflator, BVAR estimates are made of eight future logarithmic first differences.
The disparity in real GNP
growth projections among the early 1981 forecasts grew for the "out years," 1983 and 1984.
Logically, if an increase in real GNP
implies an increase in physical volume, no increase in physical volume implies no increase in real GNP
, which was the point of Assertion 3.
878 3/70-6/92 change in Real GNP
Production Quarterly percent 0.
Consider the following simultaneous equation model of the rate of growth of real GNP
(GR) and the ratio of National Saving to GNP i.
For the 10-year period (1980-1990) the real GNP
per capita averaged 1.
increased by $24 billion between the second and third quarters of 1991 to reach $4.
This is the result of a vicious cycle: The slow expansion of real GNP
reflects sluggish growth of consumer spending (which is roughly 66% of GNP).
For the fourth quarter of 1991 and the first quarter of 1992, we are expecting real GNP
to grow by 2.