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Rational Expectations Theory

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Rational Expectations Theory
In economics, a theory stating that economic actors make decisions based on their expectations for the future, which are based on their observations and past experiences. A basic example of rational expectations theory is a situation in which a consumer delays buying a certain good because, based on his/her observations and experiences, he/she believes that the price will be less expensive in a month. If enough consumers believe that, demand eases and the good is likely to actually be less expensive next month. Thus, the consumer waits a month before buying the good. Rational expectations theory states that current expectations strongly influence future performance. Economists disagree about how well the rational expectations theory works in the real world.


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But I look back with pride at the first three projects that I initiated: one on youth labor markets organized by Dick Freeman and David Wise, one on capital formation headed by Ben Friedman, and one on the implications of rational expectations theory for macroeconomic policy organized by Stan Fischer.
Seizing upon so-called rational expectations theory, they argued that multi-year tax cuts would prompt investors to sink money into markets on the basis of an expectation of lower tax rates in the future.
Each relaxes the traditional rational expectations theory in a certain way.
 
 
 
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