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Rational Expectations

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Rational expectations
The idea that people rationally anticipate the future and respond today to what they see ahead. This concept was pioneered by Nobel Laureate, Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

Rational Expectations Theory
In economics, a theory stating that economic actors make decisions based on their expectations for the future, which are based on their observations and past experiences. A basic example of rational expectations theory is a situation in which a consumer delays buying a certain good because, based on his/her observations and experiences, he/she believes that the price will be less expensive in a month. If enough consumers believe that, demand eases and the good is likely to actually be less expensive next month. Thus, the consumer waits a month before buying the good. Rational expectations theory states that current expectations strongly influence future performance. Economists disagree about how well the rational expectations theory works in the real world.


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The crisis has, indeed, provided ample evidence that investors are far from rational; but the flaws in the rational expectations line of reasoning -- hidden assumptions such as that all investors have the same information -- had been exposed well before the crisis.
A defining characteristic of these promises is that they cannot be fully grasped by pre-or-postlapsarian reason; thus, to have faith in God is to grasp the promises even as they appear patently opposed to rational expectations.
One result of the rational expectations revolution has been that a number of economists have changed their focus from studying how to manipulate short-run business cycles to researching the causes of long-term growth, an area where economists can provide the most useful advice to policymakers on issues such as tax reform, regulation, and trade.
 
 
 
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