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Random walk with drift

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Random walk with drift
For a random walk with drift, the best forecast of tomorrow's price is today's price plus a drift term. One could think of the drift as measuring a trend in the price (perhaps reflecting long-term inflation). Given the drift is usually assumed to be constant. Related: Mean reversion.


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The [Mathematical Expression Omitted] statistics which report the percentage improvement in fit over the random walk with drift model - a special case of the DS formulation and the basic representation of the dominant stochastic cycle theory - range from .
 
 
 
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