presidential election cycle

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Presidential Election Cycle

A theory of market performance stating that markets are weakest in the year following a presidential election, regardless of whether a new president or party take power. This theory held up well until the late 20th century, when the presidents' first years saw strong performance. For example, the first year of George H.W. Bush's presidency had strong market performance, but his administration ended with a recession.

presidential election cycle

The tendency of the stock market to move in four-year cycles with rising markets occurring during the period before presidential elections. The presidential election cycle is based on observation of past market movements and on the theory that holds that incumbent presidents manipulate the economy before elections in such a way that bull markets ensue. Also called election cycle.
References in periodicals archive ?
For the first time in several presidential election cycles, the "gun issue" is a key factor.
Americans' ascribed importance to terrorism and foreign affairs as election issues are no higher than what Gallup has measured in past presidential election cycles.
As part of the 2010 parliamentary and 2011 presidential election cycles in Kyrgyzstan, our assistance funded training for over 50,000 election officials across the country," Robert Blake said.
The JZ Analytics team members bring more than 100 years of combined research experience to our projects, including four successful Presidential election cycles and many off- year state and local elections since 1994.
It makes sense for the board and presidential election cycles to be in sync," said NZNO president Nano Tunnicliff.
However, while the last nine out of 10 presidential election cycles favored GOP candidates, the current governor is a Democrat, and the state legislature is left-leaning.
After four successful years, including two presidential election cycles and a record-breaking 2004, DNet will not be operational in 2005 as we strategize about the future of this nationwide online voter information project.
Traditionally, donors tend to give more money during presidential election cycles.
By airing 'Three of a Kind' in Idaho, we're demonstrating Ron Paul's commitment to Idahoans who have welcomed Paul and other candidates to their state far earlier than they have in prior presidential election cycles," said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.
In fact, the leaders in early nomination polls for the last two presidential election cycles -- Joe Lieberman in 2003 and Hillary Clinton in 2007 on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani in 2007 on the Republican side -- did not eventually win their party's nomination, with Lieberman and Giuliani having poor showings in the early primaries.
Politically, the president's advisors developed a strategy to build a coalition of independent voters who had opted for Democrats over the past four presidential election cycles, as well as to shore up traditional Democratic constituencies (farmers, laborers, and African Americans), while focusing primarily on 17 states that would be vital to winning the election.
But so, too, are market performance correlations that link investment returns to women's skirt lengths, presidential election cycles, or winners of the Super Bowl .

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