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Objective Probability

   Also found in: Encyclopedia 0.01 sec.
Objective probability
The true unobservable underlying odds that something is so.

Objective Probability
The likelihood of the outcome of any event based upon recorded measurements rather than subjective analysis. Objective probability is considered more accurate than subjective estimates, thought it should be noted that analysts often rely on subjectivity just as much. Objective probability is important to both technical analysis and fundamental analysis.


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27) Using Reyna (2004) terminology, the objective probability distribution is not captured as part of the "gist" of the problem; Reyna uses similar ideas to explain the "base-rate neglect.
It seems even more attractive when you consider that, if you know enough about the horses to assess their objective probability of winning, you might reasonably be in a position to select a small number in each race that will give you a better than 50 per cent chance of getting each leg right.
s] than the objective probability due to the "overconfidence effect" (Griffin and Varey, 1996, Dunning et al.
 
 
 
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