Sadly, discussions by professional historians have been dominated by implicit models that downplay the ability of an unfettered market to achieve widespread prosperity, preferring naive models
in which government can snap its fingers and magically solve all of society's perceived ills--if the opposition would only get out of the way.
For the estimation of naive models we used a generalized linear model (GLM) with a binomial distribution and logit link function to address this interval restriction.
Findings from the naive models for the any-use measures are presented in Table 2 section (a).
These estimates are more than double of those from the naive models.
In actuality, the benchmarks are naive models such as: (1) projecting the latest available information; or (2) predicting that the change over the forecast period is equal to that observed over the previous time interval, which is of the same length as the forecast period.
At a minimum, the BLS projections should be more accurate than the forecasts of these naive models.
22) are similar, but with the rolling equally weighted and naive models.
Our notion of robustness is that the model consistently lies near the top of performance lists of alternative models and is consistently more successful than models based only on past inflation, such as Atkeson and Ohanian's naive model.
To provide a baseline estimation and comparison, we ran naive models that did not account for the unobservable correlation between insurance and use of care.
For example, the difference in total VA cost following a change in private coverage is only $3 between the IV and naive models.
In particular, Atkeson and Ohanian (2001) present evidence indicating that one-year-ahead inflation forecasts from several NAIRU (nonaccelerating-inflation rate of unemployment) Phillips curves are no more accurate than those from a naive model that predicts inflation next year will be the same as it had been over the past year.
Third, the predictions of the one-year-ahead inflation rate conditional on actual values of the explanatory variables suggested by traditional and modified Phillips curves track actual inflation well, outperforming those based on the naive model that predicts inflation using only its past values.